7:19 PM Sunday, May 29, 2022
A severe weather outbreak is expected on Monday in parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Significant wind gusts of 60 to 85 mph, large hail of quarter size to baseball size (1.00″ to 2.75″ diameter) and several tornadoes are possible Monday into Monday evening. A potential for intense long-track tornadoes also exists late Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
The threat for tornadoes on Monday is highest from the eastern Dakotas into much of western, central and northern Minnesota with a lower risk of tornadoes farther east including Duluth, the North Shore and Arrowhead, as well as northwest Wisconsin.
Severe Weather Outlook for Monday, May 30, 2022.
The potential for severe thunderstorms is highest in western parts of the Northland or roughly west of a line from Ely to Moose Lake to Hinckley on Monday with a lesser chance for severe thunderstorms farther to the east.
Simulated radar forecast valid from Noon Monday to 4 AM Tuesday.
Storms are expected to develop first over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota Monday afternoon. These storms are then expected to move quickly to the N/NE affecting northern, central and eastern Minnesota late Monday afternoon/early evening, and then these storms will reach the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin around mid-evening on Monday.
Note: There is a chance that will see a few scattered storms develop well ahead of the main line of storms which moves out of western Minnesota Monday afternoon.
Every severe weather setup is unique, and just because the computer models show a favorable setup for severe weather and tornadoes on Monday, doesn’t necessarily mean it will happen, but the conditions certainly are there for a higher end severe weather event in parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota on Monday.
Here’s a look back at a major severe weather outbreak which occurred June 17, 2010, which hit parts of North Dakota, Minnesota, western Wisconsin and Iowa.
Severe weather outlook from 6/17/2010 – Moderate Risk for severe weather similar to tomorrow (Monday’s) risk.
Tornado Probability from 6/17/2010 showing a hatched area for significant tornadoes, again similar to what we have for tomorrow (Monday).
There were over 100 tornado reports (red) associated with this outbreak from 6/17/2010.
SEVERE WEATHER SETUP FOR MONDAY, MAY 30, 2022
Mid and upper-level trough lifting NE out of the Rockies on Monday is unusually strong for this time of year with 500mb heights running some -2 to -3 sigma for late May.
There should be plenty of forcing/lift accompanying this powerful trough on Monday as it makes its way into the Northern Plains and upper Midwest.
*Very strong upper-level winds up to or an excess of 130 knots ejecting NE out of the Central Plains.
*Strong mid-level winds on the order of 70-90+ knots covering the upper Midwest.
*Good directional and speed shear in place on Monday with SE surface winds shifting SSE at 850mb and to the SSW at 500mb. Winds are also expected to increase with height, ranging from around 15 knots near the surface, to 30-50 knots at 850mb, and to 65-85 knots at 500mb. What this all means is that any supercell thunderstorm that develops may start to rotate (increasing the odds for a tornado) in western, central and northern Minnesota on Monday.
Surface features on Monday include a strong area of low-pressure lifting NE out of southern Nebraska with a warm front/stationary front draped across north-central Minnesota into far northern Wisconsin while a cold front (dryline like front) surges NE out of western and southern Minnesota.
There should be plenty of forcing in place with this system to produce showers and thunderstorms on Monday.
As I alluded to a little earlier in this post, the cold front on Monday has dryline like features as will see a punch of very dry air move quickly NE while humid air gets pumped N/NW ahead of this front. This kind of setup is more typical in the Central Plains compared to what we typically see in the upper Midwest, although it has happened in the past, but not too often.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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