4:56 PM Tuesday, June 7, 2022
- Isolated showers are possible across the Northland through Thursday but most of us stay dry.
- Pleasant temperatures to continue through Friday (daytime highs 68 to 75)
- Rain chances increasing this weekend (at least on some model forecasts)
A look at a simulated radar forecast (3km NAM) through 7 PM Thursday showing the widely scattered shower potential in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through Thursday.
For Duluth — This is the longest stretch we’ve seen without precipitation in quite some time.
June 1-7 — 7 days in a row and counting with no rain in Duluth, unless you want to count the trace of sprinkles which parts of the city saw Monday morning (June 6).
May 3-7 — 5 days in a row with no rain in Duluth.
European computer model is rather bullish with the amount and coverage of rain for Saturday and the GFS model is in close agreement as well, but the NWS Blend of Models fails to generate any rainfall in the Northland this weekend, so there is some uncertainty on how things will play out this weekend.
Euro model
NWS Blend of Models
Water temperatures on Lake Superior vary quite a bit right now, but generally speaking the warmer water temperatures are found closer to the shore, while farther out over the lake the water temperature is colder.
Over the southwest arm of Lake Superior – Duluth Harbor area the water temperature was sitting right around the 50-degree mark as of Tuesday morning, June 7, 2022.
The average water temperature of Lake Superior is running a bit colder than normal at this time of year.
The average water temperature of Lake Superior is warmest sometime between mid-July and August peaking around +16C or 60F, but again closer to the shoreline we’ve seen water temperatures as warm as the 70s to around 80 degrees in past years/summers.
Average water temperature of Lake Superior as of June 7, 2022: +3C or 37F.
Average in early June (1995-2021): Around +5C or 41F.
We’re looking at a pattern change next week as will get rid of the northwest flow aloft which the upper Midwest has been in for a while now and replace it with a southwest flow aloft.
A strong upper-level trough sets up over the Pacific northwest into the Rockies early to mid-next week, with another trough forecast to develop over the northeast U.S., while in between will have a strengthening upper-level ridge centered over the Midwest and southern U.S. This overall pattern will lead to higher 500mb heights building north into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes leading to much warmer temperatures while chances for showers and thunderstorms will also be present on a few days next week as moisture and instability increases ahead of the aforementioned western trough and out ahead of a low-pressure system and its warm front and cold front.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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