7:51 PM Sunday, June 19, 2022
Another hot and humid day is on the way Monday with high temperatures in the 90s in much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but cooler temperatures are expected once again near Lake Superior, especially along the North Shore.
A Heat Advisory covers all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin except for the North Shore of Lake Superior on Monday. Heat index values of 95 to 103 degrees expected.
Note: Less lake cooling is expected in Duluth Monday as winds become more southerly, and assuming this occurs then temperatures will surpass 90 even for locations below the hill in Duluth, but should an east wind win out, then we’re looking at temperatures in the 50s and 60s for locations below the hill in Duluth on Monday. You never really know what that lake will do!
Very warm temperatures will continue Tuesday with highs in the 80s with a few 90s possible in northwest Wisconsin, but less humid conditions are expected by Tuesday afternoon as lower dew point temperatures spread east across the Northland.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 20
Ashland: 98 set in 1909
International Falls: 97 set in 1910
Brainerd: 93 set in 1995
Hibbing: 92 set in 1995
Duluth: 88 set in 1995
HIGH TEMPERATURE REPORTS from Sunday, June 19, 2022
Brainerd, MN: 98
International Falls, MN: 93
Bigfork, MN: 93
Longville, MN: 93
Moose Lake, MN: 93
Siren, WI: 92
Orr, MN: 91
Cook, MN: 91
Grand Rapids, MN: 91
Aitkin, MN: 91
McGregor, MN: 91
Hibbing, MN: 90
Ely, MN: 90
Crane Lake, MN: 90
Eveleth, MN: 90
Cloquet, MN: 90
High temps in the Twin Ports from June 19, 2022
Duluth Airport: 80 — First official 80 of 2022. Last time the temperature was 80 degrees or warmer in Duluth was September 19, 2021.
Superior Airport: 63
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 54
To go along with the hot temperatures will be another round of very high dew point temperatures which are forecast to range from the mid 60s to mid 70s across the Northland Monday.
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mostly over north central into northeast Minnesota late Monday afternoon through late Monday night, with a few non-severe thunderstorms possible over northwest Wisconsin Monday night.
The primary threats from severe thunderstorms on Monday include damaging winds of 60 mph or greater and large hail to 1″ in diameter (quarter size) Torrential downpours are also likely with any storm on Monday and frequent lightning is likely too. Again, the main time frame for when we may see some storms and severe weather in parts of the Northland is from late Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Here are two simulated radar forecasts for Monday-early Tuesday morning.
Note: NAM model shows the convection developing more to the south/east vs. a more northerly solution which the HRRR model shows.
NAM 3km model valid 1 PM Monday to Midnight.
HRRR model valid 1 PM Monday to 4 AM Tuesday.
One deep trough to the west and another deep trough to the east with a massive ridge in between.
The aforementioned upper-level pattern shows up very nicely on satellite imagery today with storm clusters (orange and red) riding up and over a ridge across the Midwest.
Thanks for reading!
Tim