6:54 PM Monday, June 20, 2022
- Very humid and warm conditions tonight with a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms.
- Warm weather continues Tuesday although not the extreme heat that we’ve seen the last few days.
- Tuesday will start out on the muggy side, but a much drier air mass arrives during the afternoon.
- Turning muggy again late in the week with scattered showers and thunderstorms but a cooler and less humid air mass arrives once again for the weekend.
We now have two severe thunderstorm watches (yellow) covering areas from western to northern Minnesota tonight, with the eastern most watch running until 1 AM, and this watch includes parts of the Northland and the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Walker, Cass Lake, Pine River, Brainerd, Aitkin, Hill City, McGregor, Floodwood, Duluth, Cotton, Hibbing, Virginia, Babbitt, Ely, Cook, Orr, Crane Lake, and also the Boundary Waters area.
Primary threats from severe thunderstorms tonight include
-Damaging Winds to 60 mph or greater.
-Large Hail of Quarter size to Ping Pong Ball size (1″ to 1.5″ diameter)
-Torrential rain and frequent lightning will also occur with any thunderstorm tonight.
A look at the deep convection (orange and red) which is moving NE across western Minnesota and into far northern Minnesota late this afternoon via Goes-16 satellite imagery.
Loop time ends 6:36 PM Monday, June 20, 2022.
Here’s a look at two simulated radar forecasts for tonight.
Note: You become a little concerned if storms start to move over the same location for a few hours tonight since these storms will likely drop torrential rainfall with so much juice in the air, and sure enough both models show the potential for some training storms in spots tonight.
18z NAM 3km model through 7 AM Tuesday.
22z HRRR model through 7 AM Tuesday.
We’re seeing good convergence occurring near a cold front over western/northwestern Minnesota late this afternoon and this area of enhanced lift will spread into parts of the Northland tonight which will help produce some convection. The cold front itself will move through the Northland tonight through early Tuesday morning.
The air mass is very unstable ahead of this cold front late this afternoon with CAPE of 2000-4000 j/kg in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but the mid-level lapse rates are a little on the low side (generally <7.0 c/km) and the amount of wind shear is also pretty low including wind speeds aloft which actually decrease with height so there isn’t much speed shear which isn’t what you want to see if you want severe weather, but regardless of all this there is still a threat for some severe weather across parts of the Northland tonight.
With so much moisture in the air (precipitable water 1.5″-2″) there is definitely a risk for torrential rain with the storms tonight, and if storms move over the same location for a few hours, then we may see some localized flash flooding develop, chances for this appear to be highest across north-central Minnesota, but still can’t rule it out farther south/east into east-central and northeast Minnesota either.
Lake Superior always puts up a good fight, but even that lake couldn’t hold the heat back any longer.
Blast furnace type heat in the Northland today, and for some parts of the area this is the 2nd day in a row with very hot temperatures.
Temperatures late this afternoon were within 2 to 3 degrees of 100 at Superior, Moose Lake, Brainerd and Siren.
Widespread 90s in the Northland today, and even close to Lake Superior the southwest wind was strong enough to kick the lake cooled air farther out over Lake Superior this afternoon.
Note: Temperature at Duluth Sky Harbor Airport increased by 25 degrees an in hour this afternoon, going from 68 at 12:55 PM to 93 at 1:55 PM.
***RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM JUNE 20, 2022***
Brainerd, MN: New Record: 99, old record 93 set in 1988 and 1995.
Duluth, MN: New Record: 93, old record 88 set in 1995.
Hibbing, MN: New Record: 93, old record 92 set in 1995.
First 90 of 2022 today at Duluth, Minnesota. The last time it was 90 or warmer in Duluth was July 5, 2021.
Last year Duluth had 4 days with a temperature of 90 or warmer. The record for greatest number of 90-degree days at Duluth is 14 days (set in 1936).
On average Duluth gets 2 days at or above 90 the entire year, so hitting 90 isn’t anything unusual, but it doesn’t happen a lot in Duluth.
The combination of the already hot air temperatures along with tropical level humidity has led to widespread heat index values in the mid 90s to low 100s in the Northland this afternoon.
Superior reported a heat index value of 106 this afternoon!
As mentioned earlier, the amount of humidity in the air today is pretty remarkable for this far north, with dew point temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s!
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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