5:52 PM Thursday, June 30, 2022
Persistent ridging over the Southwest US into parts of the southern Plains and Rockies with a trough centered north of the Great Lakes is expected during the month of July with some brief changes to this pattern likely at times throughout the month.
This 500mb pattern favors near normal to slightly below normal temperatures in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with near normal to below normal rainfall.
Brief shots of potentially hot weather may occur in the Northland during the month of July, but if we do get any surges of heat they shouldn’t stick around very long.
Lake Superior continues to run cooler than average by ~6 degrees for this time of year, and this may play more of a role in keeping temperatures cooler than they typically are in July near Lake Superior whenever the wind is out of the east for the North Shore and in Duluth, and when the wind is coming out of the north or northwest for the South Shore.
500mb trend for July 2022 per last 10 CFS model runs.
July Climate Averages and Records for Duluth, Minnesota
Normal high on the 1st: 76
Normal high on the 31st: 78
Normal low on the 1st: 54
Normal low on the 31st: 57
Average monthly temperature: 67.0 degrees
Warmest July on record: 71.9 degrees set in 2006
Coldest July on record: 59.4 degrees set in 1992
On average there are 12 days in July with a maximum temperature of 80 degrees or warmer (record is 25 days set in 2012)
On average there is 1 day in July with a maximum temperature of 90 degrees or warmer (record is 9 days set in 1936)
Rainfall: 3.92″
Wettest July on record: 10.83″ set in 1909
Driest July on record: 0.47″ set in 1875
Astronomical Data for July
Sunrise on the 1st: 5:18 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st: 5:47 AM CDT
Sunset on the 1st: 9:07 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st: 8:41 PM CDT
Outlook for July 2022
TEMPERATURES
Temperature trend for July 2022 per last 10 CFS model runs.
PRECIPITATION
Precipitation trend for July 2022 per last 10 CFS model runs.
LACK OF RAIN/DROUGHT
Areas outlined in red saw a very dry June, especially in the areas shaded in darker brown which represents a top 10 driest June on record.
Drought conditions have worsened (yellow) a bit over the last month from southern Minnesota into parts of north-central Wisconsin, so this is another thing to monitor as we head through July to see if this developing ‘flash drought’ continues to worsen, or does the pattern turn wetter in the weeks ahead? Time will tell!
Thanks for reading!
Tim