7:57 PM Thursday, July 7, 2022
Seasonable temperatures and less humid conditions will return to the Northland Friday with highs in the 70s to around 80 degrees except for upper 50s and 60s near Lake Superior due to a stronger NE wind coming off Lake Superior.
Humidity returns along with warmer temperatures this weekend especially on Sunday.
Duluth recorded its first 80-degree temperature of the month today with a high of 84. Last time it was at least 80 in Duluth was June 30th (high of 85). July averages 12 days with a temperature of at least 80 in Duluth.
A cold front moved through the Northland today causing a few isolated showers. One of these isolated showers popped up on the north side of Duluth around 3 PM today and then this shower moved over southwest Lake Superior. The Duluth Airport received 0.04″ of rain today from a passing shower around mid-afternoon.
The shower on the above radar image showed up well on the Canal Cam this afternoon. Note the slight darkening and even some rain shafts while patchy blue sky is visible west and east of that little shower.
A more unsettled weather pattern will be setting up late this weekend into early next week as an area of low pressure with its warm front and cold front moves through the Northland on Sunday which will be followed by an upper-level trough which digs SE into the Great Lakes next Monday and Tuesday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Sunday through Tuesday as this system moves through.
500mb height anomaly forecast valid July 10-13, 2022
Blue colors represent lower 500mb heights (trough)
A risk for strong to severe thunderstorms continues in much of the Northland Sunday, and a few strong storms are possible next Monday and possibly next Tuesday as well.
It continues to look like the ingredients needed for some severe thunderstorms will be coming together on Sunday with favorable amounts of instability along with stronger winds aloft which will increase the amount of wind shear. It also looks like will have plenty of moisture in place for storms on Sunday.
Whether or not this turns out to be more of a linear storm mode (damaging wind/hail/heavy rain threat) or supercells capable of all hazards including isolated tornadoes remains to be seen.
Another day featuring a Ring of Fire pattern today, although the storm clusters continue to shift farther south compared to a few days ago focusing more into the southern Midwest into the southeast US today, and the reason behind that is because we’re seeing the upper-level ridge begin to shift more to the west and eventually this ridge will shift to the northwest as it sets up over the Rockies this weekend into next week.
Goes-16 infrared satellite loop from Thursday afternoon, July 7, 2022.
There continues to be indications showing up in the GFS and Euro models for a pattern that may become more favorable to support more frequent shots of very warm to even hot temperatures in the Northland beginning late next week, on or after July 15.
The reason behind this is due to the placement of a strong upper-level ridge which may set up more into the Western High Plains and Northern Plains region during mid-July.
18z GFS model (shown below) is currently forecasting a 2.5 sigma ridge covering areas from central Canada to the Western High Plains for late next week, that is a formidable ridge. Time will tell if this happens or not.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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