7:00 PM Friday, July 8, 2022
Saturday is shaping up to be a very pleasant summer day in the Northland with no rain, a gentle breeze, low humidity with pleasant daytime temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s except for slightly cooler temperatures (60s) near Lake Superior.
A risk for some strong to severe thunderstorms continues Sunday with a few strong storms also possible Monday.
July is off to a cool start in the Northland with the average monthly temperature running below normal at 4 out of the 5 major climate sites in the Northland through July 7th – See below.
Ashland, WI: 62.4 F, -3.2 degrees below average
Duluth, MN: 62.8 F, -2.9 degrees below average
International Falls, MN: 61.9 F, -2.1 degrees below average
Hibbing, MN: 60.8 F, -1.9 degrees below average
Brainerd, MN: 69.3 F, +0.3 degrees above average
Near seasonable high temperatures Saturday with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but it will be cooler once again near Lake Superior.
Low to mid 80s for highs in the Northland Sunday, but these temperatures may end up cooler if clouds and rain linger most of the day.
***SUNDAY’S SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL***
- A cold front is forecast to move quickly east out of the Dakotas on Sunday with southerly winds ahead of this front drawing warm, humid and unstable air north into the upper Midwest.
- Stronger mid to upper-level winds will accompany this system as it moves into the upper Midwest, this will lead to better overall wind shear with SREF model forecast showing around 40 knots of 0-6 km shear and effective bulk shear values in the Northland, this combined with a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates >7.0 C/km does increase the potential for organized convection, possible supercells and large hail.
- There are differences in the computer models on the amount of instability that’ll be present in the Northland on Sunday but at a minimum we’re likely looking at CAPE values of around 1000 J/kg (possibly much higher) which is enough for at least a few strong to severe storms.
One potential red flag with Sunday’s severe weather setup would be the warm air aloft which will move ENE out of western Minnesota Sunday afternoon with 700mb temperatures of +14 to +16C, this could ultimately lead to little to no convection until later Sunday night, but if the forcing with the cold front is strong enough to break through this possible cap, then explosive thunderstorm development may occur late Sunday afternoon/evening.
Here’s a look at how Sunday may play out via 18z NAM 3km model, but keep in mind this forecast will change a few times over the next day or so.
The 18z NAM 3km model from today shows a few rounds of thunderstorms moving through the Northland Sunday into Sunday night.
Simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM Sunday to 11 PM Sunday.
Heavy rain is possible with the thunderstorms which may lead to isolated flash flooding in the Northland Sunday and Sunday night.
Plenty of moisture will be in place for a storm to tap into on Sunday with dew points in the 60s to around 70 while precipitable water ranges from around 1.30″ to nearly 2.00″.
A half inch to an inch of rain is possible across northern Minnesota from Sunday into Monday with a quarter to half inch of rain for east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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