5:05 PM Thursday, July 14, 2022
Rain chances have increased quite a bit in much of the Northland tonight into early Friday morning thanks to an upper-level disturbance which will move east-southeast out of the Northern Plains tonight.
The greatest amounts of rain tonight into early Friday morning are forecast to setup from west-central into central and eastern Minnesota, and over parts of western and central Wisconsin, these areas have the greatest chance of picking up a half inch to an inch or more of rain tonight.
The least amount of rain with tonight’s system is forecast to be over far northern Minnesota and over the tip of the Arrowhead (near the Ontario border), while areas in between including in the Twin Ports could go either way, with not much rain, or pockets of higher rain totals an excess of a half inch, reason behind this is due to a few of the computer models which show higher rain totals setting up near the Highway 2 corridor in northeast Minnesota, while other models keep things slightly more to the south.
Note: After tonight we’re looking at mainly dry weather in the Northland this weekend. High temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s on Friday, and mainly in the 80s for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday with a chance for a few 90-degree temperatures on Sunday and Monday mainly in western parts of the Northland (Brainerd Lakes). Temperatures cool a bit (70s and 80s) for the middle of next week. So, yes it will be warm (a bit above average) but no record-breaking heat for our area into early next week. It will be rather muggy, however, over the next few days with dew points in the 60s Friday through early next week.
Chilly Thursday morning in the Northland
*Ashland came within 3 degrees of tying their record low temperature for July 14 with a low of 40 this morning (record low 37 set in 1960)
Superior Airport: 38
Hibbing, MN: 41
Grand Marais Airport: 41
Eveleth, MN: 41
Cotton, MN: 41
Cloquet, MN: 43
Ely, MN: 43
Here’s a look at that system via Goes-16 water vapor loop from Thursday afternoon, July 14, 2022.
Plenty of moisture will lift into the Northland tonight as that system moves out of the Northern Plains.
PWAT values range from 0.60-0.90″ across the Northland this afternoon, but a much more humid air mass consisting of PWAT values of 1″ to 1.60″ stretching from the Dakotas to western/southern Minnesota will move into the Northland tonight.
A look at the 700mb analysis this afternoon shows a disturbance with enhanced lift (orange and red) currently moving through the Dakotas with an area of rain and scattered thunderstorms affecting eastern North Dakota this afternoon (see radar loop below)
Radar loop ending 3:05 PM Thursday, July 14, 2022.
A look at two model forecasts for tonight’s rain event.
Both models do show a possible complex (MCS) of showers and thunderstorms moving south/southeast later tonight-early Friday morning, but they do differ a bit on the path of this MCS, with the HRRR model showing this MCS a little farther north vs. the NAM 3km model which takes this MCS more to the south/southeast overnight tonight.
With a NW flow aloft in place, and the higher CAPE (instability) located farther to the south, a solution closer to the NAM 3km model could end up being right!
But, regardless of where this MCS tracks, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are still expected farther north across the Northland tonight into early Friday morning with heavy downpours possible especially from east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.
18z HRRR model simulated radar forecast through 7 AM Friday.
18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast through 7 AM Friday.
Drought conditions continue over parts of southern Minnesota with nearly 3% of the state in Moderate Drought per latest drought monitor.
11% of Minnesota is Abnormally Dry, this is down from 17% last week.
We’re also seeing drought conditions impacting parts of Wisconsin (mostly across north-central and far southern areas of the state) with 7% of Wisconsin in Moderate Drought, while 35% of the state is Abnormally Dry.
Drought conditions also continue across parts of the Midwest with a small part of northwest Iowa in Extreme Drought (red)
Here’s the 4-week Drought Monitor change (July 12, 2022, compared to June 14, 2022)
Yellow and orange – Worsening drought
Green – Drought improvement
Soil moisture conditions are running on the dry side in eastern Minnesota and much of northern Wisconsin (orange and red) while wetter soil conditions are found across much of northern Minnesota (green and blue)
Thanks for reading!
Tim