Scattered showers/t-storms tonight; flood advisory in effect for parts of NE Minnesota early this evening; Mainly dry Wednesday-Thursday

5:32 PM Tuesday, August 2, 2022

It’s been a stormy Tuesday in parts of the Northland as we’ve seen scattered strong to severe thunderstorms including a few elevated supercells move across parts of northeast Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin this afternoon.

Thunderstorms today have contained frequent lightning, large hail of up to golf ball size, and torrential rainfall which has led to some flooding issues in parts of northeast Minnesota including for the following locations, Babbitt, Isabella, Finland, Little Marais, southern Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness, Murphy City, Tettegouche State Park, Virginia, Mountain Iron, Hoyt Lakes, Gilbert, Aurora, Tower, Cook, Bigfork, Gheen, and Togo.

There is plenty of energy feeding into these storms today with CAPE >4500 J/kg across western and central Minnesota this afternoon, and expect these large values of CAPE to remain over the Northland through the night.

Radar loop ending 5:20 PM Tuesday, August 2, 2022

Strong thunderstorms continue to impact the Arrowhead of Minnesota and over Lake Superior late this afternoon with movement of those storms to the east.

Storms today have been focusing ENE of the +12C 700mb temperature contour which is a good threshold for a stronger capping inversion, and this layer of warm air aloft or the cap will continue to move NE deeper into the Northland tonight so it’s uncertain whether or not will get another round of convection to develop in our area after this first round exits early this evening.

Local Storm Reports for Tuesday, August 2, 2022
Source: NWS Duluth, MN

3:30 PM: Hail 1.25″ (half dollar size) 14 ESE Bigfork, MN (Itasca County)

3:22 PM: Hail 1.50″ (ping pong ball size) 4 ENE Markham, MN (St. Louis County)

3:16 PM: Hail 0.75″. 4 SSE McKinley, MN (St. Louis County)

3:16 PM: Hail 1.25″ (half dollar size) 4 SE McKinley, MN (St. Louis County)

3:06 PM: Hail 1.75″ (golf ball size) 2 N Markham, MN (St. Louis County)

3:00 PM: Hail 1.75″ (golf ball size) Makinen, MN (St. Louis County)

3:00 PM: Hail 1.25″ (half dollar size) 4 N Makinen, MN (St. Louis County)

A look at today’s storms via Goes-16 infrared satellite imagery with the colder/deeper clouds (convection) in yellow, orange and red on the animation below.

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There’s been some impressive rainfall totals from around Bigfork and Effie to the Craigville and Togo areas in northern Minnesota today with radar estimating between 1″ and 3.5″ of rain today.

The convection allowing models (CAMS) have been struggling a lot with today’s setup, and that trend may continue through tonight.

Capping issues is partly to blame for the uncertainty on when and where storms develop in this type of setup, and that capping inversion will be sticking around through the night.

Here’s the latest HRRR model run simulated radar forecast through 6 AM Wednesday.

There is a chance that we could see a few more thunderstorms develop at times through the night in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with a risk for a few additional strong to severe thunderstorms. The primary severe weather threats for tonight include large hail of up to golf ball size (1.75″ diameter) and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph.

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Big time heat covering South Dakota today — 4 PM temperatures.

Winner, SD: 110
Mitchell, SD: 106
Sioux Falls, SD: 104
Yankton, SD: 103

Widespread 90s covered western, central, and southern Minnesota as far north as Little Falls and Cambridge this afternoon, but temperatures are running a lot cooler in most of the Northland today due to the ongoing convection and cloud cover, and there are no signs that will be getting into any of that major heat which is covering areas farther to our south through early next week.

Daytime highs in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will generally be in the 70s and 80s from Wednesday through next Monday with the coolest days looking to be on Wednesday and perhaps again one of the days this weekend.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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