Chances for showers/t-storms Tuesday; Mainly dry Wednesday-Thursday; Near normal to above normal temps through the weekend

4:51 PM Monday, August 1, 2022

Showers and thunderstorms are possible at times in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Tuesday and Tuesday night as a low-pressure system with its warm front and cold front move across the upper Midwest.

The severe weather parameters actually look quite good in much of the Northland on Tuesday with strong instability forecast to be in place with CAPE of 2000-3500+ J/kg along with up to 50 knots of 0-6 KM and Effective Bulk Shear. Winds aloft look strong with WNW mid/upper-level winds, and a strong low-level jet out of the SW is also forecast to setup across the upper Midwest on Tuesday.

The main unknowns at this time include timing and location of thunderstorm development, and whether or not a cap becomes strong enough to prevent thunderstorms from forming.

There is a chance that the majority of the thunderstorms that develop will only impact the open waters of Lake Superior and then into upper Michigan leaving most of the Northland generally dry on Tuesday, but there is also a potential that we see a cluster or two of storms develop on the eastern edge of a cap with storms moving S-SE across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday.

An elevated mixed layer (EML) with an area of very warm 700mb temps of +12 to +15C will be moving ENE out of the Dakotas and western Minnesota Tuesday. Sometimes you can get clusters of storms to form on the eastern edge of these warmer temperatures which would put northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin in that zone for possible convection on Tuesday.

850mb temps also look very toasty to our west on Tuesday with values reaching +30C in parts of South Dakota to around +28C in western Minnesota.

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Scattered to isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in all of the Northland Tuesday and Tuesday night.

The primary severe weather threats include large hail to ping pong ball size (1.50″ diameter) and damaging wind gusts to 65 mph.

Here’s the HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday.

NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday.

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A very hot day is expected on Tuesday across western, central, and southern Minnesota with highs in the 90s in those areas, with low 100s in southwest Minnesota.

It also looks pretty warm in the Northland on Tuesday but not anywhere near as hot as it will be farther to the south, with highs in the 80s expected in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with 70s along the North Shore, while highs could approach 90 around the Brainerd Lakes, Hinckley and Siren areas.

Highs Wednesday through Saturday are forecast to range from the mid 70s to mid 80s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, so once again a forecast that is void of any big-time heat for our area.

Heat Advisory is in effect for Tuesday afternoon-early Tuesday evening for parts of western, central, and southern Minnesota.

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A few areas of heavy rain in the Northland Sunday night — I broke the areas down in two, with the first image centering on the northern portion of the Northland.

And here’s another image which focuses on the southern portion of the Northland.

Rainfall Reports from July 31, 2022
Source: NWS Duluth, MN

0.7 NW Chisholm, MN: 2.96″
Shell Lake, WI: 2.39″
Winton, MN: 1.83″
9.7 NNE Two Harbors, MN: 1.74″
3.4 NNW Iron Junction, MN: 1.67″
25 E Ely, MN: 1.60″
9 N Bayfield, WI: 1.51″
Aurora, MN: 1.28″
1.2 N Knife River, MN: 1.28″
3.8 S Tower, MN: 1.15″
1 NE Hibbing, MN: 1.12″
Siren, WI: 1.05″
Duluth Airport: 1.03″
Silver Bay, MN: 0.94″
French River, MN: 0.92″
10.1 NNW Grand Marais, MN: 0.91″
Saginaw, MN: 0.90″
7.7 S International Falls, MN: 0.90″
6.5 S Deer River, MN: 0.88″
0.1 NE Hovland, MN: 0.86″
Two Harbors, MN: 0.84″
1.0 ENE Maple, WI: 0.82″
5 N Grand Rapids, MN: 0.80″
Embarrass, MN: 0.79″
Cotton, MN: 0.76″
Cable, WI: 0.76″
7 SW Hertel, WI: 0.76″
Poplar, WI: 0.73″
Clam Lake, WI: 0.68″
Grand Marais, MN: 0.64″
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.63″
Deer River, MN: 0.61″
Esko, MN: 0.54″
Isabella, MN: 0.49″
Lutsen, MN: 0.46″
Barnes, WI: 0.42″
Walker, MN: 0.41″
Superior Airport: 0.38″
Northome, MN: 0.31″
South Range, WI: 0.30″
1.2 W Solon Springs, WI: 0.28″
Glidden, WI: 0.22″
Webb Lake, WI: 0.19″
Hayward, WI: 0.18″
Hurley, WI: 0.18″
Danbury, WI: 0.11″
3 NE Brainerd, MN: 0.10″
Cook, MN: 0.10″
Washburn, WI: 0.09″
Ashland, WI: 0.04″
Minong, WI: 0.02″

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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