4:12 PM Sunday, July 31, 2022
A cold front will continue to move east out of western Minnesota through this evening, and as this front moves farther east it will encounter a warm, humid and unstable air mass which will aid in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the Northland through this evening.
An approaching mid/upper-level trough digging ESE out of western Minnesota will also enhance the amount of lift as it moves over the Northland this evening, so this will be another source of lift to get some thunderstorms to develop.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Sunday, July 31, 2022.
There is quite a bit of moisture over the Northland ahead of this system today with precipitable water of around 1.50″ while dew points are in the low to mid 60s.
Torrential downpours are likely in parts of the Northland through this evening due to the available moisture over the area today.
Rainfall totals ranging from 0.10″ to 0.50″ are likely in much of the Northland this evening, with locally higher amounts of 0.50″-1″+ possible in spots.
A few strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible over all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through this evening with the better chances covering areas along and south of a line from around Brainerd to Moose Lake in Minnesota, and west of a line from around Dairyland to Shell Lake in northwest Wisconsin.
The primary severe weather threats include damaging wind gusts to 65 mph and large hail to 1 inch diameter (quarter size).
The parameters for severe weather aren’t too high with today’s setup with most of them in the marginal range including the amount of wind shear which ranges from around 25 to 30 knots while CAPE is maximized in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range.
The potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms is greatest until around 10 PM this evening, and the risk for showers and thunderstorms should diminish from west to east by Midnight tonight.
HRRR model simulated radar forecast through Midnight tonight.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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