5:22 PM Sunday, August 14, 2022
Days continue to get shorter, and we’ve already had a few days recently that have had an early fall feel to it, and the week ahead although not a complete washout in the Northland will feature isolated to scattered coverage rains pretty much every day from Monday through Friday, while fog will also be an issue during the next several nights/mornings, which if you believe weather folklore could lead to frequent snowfalls for the upcoming winter.
Now for those that may remember, last August was also a foggy month in Duluth with 14 days/nights of fog for the month. The winter (Dec.-Feb.) of 2021-2022 ended with 36 snowfall events of 0.1″ or greater in Duluth, normal for the winter is 37 snowfall events of 0.1″ or greater. Snowfall last winter in Duluth was well above normal at 62.7″. Normal snowfall from Dec.-Feb. is 50.4″ using the 1991-2020 climate period.
So far this month we’ve seen a continuation of the pattern we’ve seen most of the summer, which is a northwest flow dominating the upper Midwest which has helped to keep the most intense/persistent heat bottled up farther to the south/west. There won’t be a whole lot of change in this pattern going forward.
Not much change to the daytime temperatures in the Northland this week, with highs generally in the 70s through Saturday, August 20, but lake breezes are likely much of this week which will keep high temps in the 60s near Lake Superior. Note: Fog will also be an issue in parts of the Northland over the next several nights/mornings.
The warmest temperatures compared to normal this week will be centered over the Pacific northwest into the Northern Rockies, extending north into the western half of Canada.
Generally cooler than normal temperatures are expected this week farther south/east including near Lake Superior.
Here are the average monthly temperatures and their departure from normal in the Northland for August 1-13, 2022, also included is the highest temperature recorded so far this month in parenthesis.
Brainerd, MN: 68.2 F, -0.4 degrees below normal
(91 on 8/5)
International Falls, MN: 64.9 F, +0.6 degrees above normal
(83 on 8/9)
Ashland, WI: 64.6 F, -1.8 degrees below normal
(88 on 8/5)
Duluth, MN: 64.6 F, -2.2 degrees below normal
(84 on 8/5)
Hibbing, MN: 61.5 F, -1.6 degrees below normal
(86 on 8/5)
Yellow outlined areas on the image below represent areas where the average monthly temperature for August 2022 is running at least +4 degrees above normal thru the 13th.
Some parts of Minnesota are running above normal in rainfall this summer, while other parts of the state, most notably from parts of southwest into eastern Minnesota are running rainfall deficits of -1 to more than -4″ below normal to date.
Rainfall Totals and their Departure from Normal since June 15, 2022
Source: MNDNR
Rochester, MN: 11.84″, +3.13″ above normal
St. Cloud, MN: 9.74″, +2.51″ above normal
Hibbing, MN: 9.39″, +1.73″ above normal
International Falls, MN: 8.05″, +0.78″ above normal
Duluth, MN: 7.45″, -0.54″ below normal
Brainerd, MN: 5.93″, -1.86″ below normal
Superior, WI: 4.53″, -3.55″ below normal
Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN: 4.36″, -4.15″ below normal
Redwood Falls, MN: 3.69″, -3.93″ below normal
Pipestone, MN: 3.40″, -3.77″ below normal
Scattered rainfall patterns this summer, which is typical for the season.
Green and Blue – Wetter than normal
Brown and Red – Drier than normal
It looks like most of the showers through Monday will be concentrated over north-central Minnesota into the Arrowhead, and also in parts of northwest Wisconsin.
Note: It does look like will stay mostly dry in Duluth and Superior through Monday afternoon, but I can’t guarantee that will stay completely dry in this type of pattern, but it does look like rain chances are higher starting Tuesday compared to Monday in the Twin Ports.
HRRR model radar forecast through 7 PM Monday.
NWS blend of models rainfall forecast through 7 AM Saturday.
On average we’re looking at about a quarter to half inch of rain in much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this week, but there will be pockets of higher rainfall totals which could exceed an inch.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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