5:52 PM Friday, August 19, 2022
- Scattered showers with some heavier downpours along with isolated thunderstorms will slowly diminish over the Northland this evening.
- Areas of fog locally dense is likely tonight lingering through Saturday morning, with patchy fog again possible late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
- Warmest day of the weekend looks to be Sunday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
- Isolated showers still possible on Saturday, but the trend is for a mostly dry weekend in much of the Northland.
Note: Duluth Airport has picked up 1.73″ of rain this week, with most of this falling on the 16th, and also on the 18th during an early morning thunderstorm which hit mainly southern parts of Duluth and Superior, but in general it has been one of those weeks that a forecaster hates (or maybe it’s just me?) due to the forecast being full of rain chances every day, yet we really only had about an hour or two of rain the entire week when you add things up. That’s what a forecaster means when they say not a complete washout, no all-day rains, and many dry hours mixed in.
A strong mid and upper-level low pressure system continues to move slowly south/east through southern Minnesota today. This low looks quite impressive on satellite imagery today.
Low-level water vapor loop from Friday, August 19, 2022.
Dry air in yellow and orange, moist air in blue and white.
And here’s a look at today’s system via Goes-16 visible satellite imagery.
HRRR model radar forecast through Midnight tonight.
Fog will be an issue tonight through Saturday morning in parts of the Northland, with dense fog possible in spots, especially near Lake Superior. This fog should burn off Saturday afternoon.
HRRR model visibility forecast through 10 AM Saturday.
<1 mile visibility in pink on the animation below.
Here’s a look at MRMS rainfall totals over the last 24 hours ending 12 PM Friday.
24-Hour Rainfall Totals from August 18-19, 2022 (ending 4 PM on the 19th)
Source: MesoWest
Gull Lake Dam, MN: 2.71″
Brainerd, MN: 1.29″
McGregor, MN: 0.78″
Cook, MN: 0.76″
Winton, MN: 0.71″
Vermilion River near Crane Lake, MN: 0.56″
Moose Lake, MN: 0.55″
Pine River, MN: 0.54″
Aurora, MN: 0.47″
French River, MN: 0.42″
International Falls, MN: 0.41″
Hinckley, MN: 0.35″
Washburn, WI: 0.34″
Northome, MN: 0.30″
Saginaw, MN: 0.28″
Winter, WI: 0.25″
Hill City, MN: 0.20″
Siren, WI: 0.18″
Walker, MN: 0.16″
Cable, WI: 0.10″
Minong, WI: 0.08″
Esko, MN: 0.08″
Spooner, WI: 0.08″
Hayward, WI: 0.08″
Ely, MN: 0.07″
Ashland, WI: 0.06″
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.06″
South Range, WI: 0.06″
Danbury, WI: 0.06″
Clam Lake, WI: 0.05″
Eveleth-Virginia, MN: 0.05″
Cass Lake, MN: 0.04″
Seagull Lake, MN: 0.04″
Schroeder, MN: 0.04″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.04″
Webb Lake, WI: 0.04″
Cloquet, MN: 0.03″
Isabella, MN: 0.03″
Grand Marais, The Bay of Grand Marais, MN: 0.03″
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.03″
Duluth Airport: 0.01″
Will finally see a drier air mass push south out of northern Minnesota on Saturday, with a bigger push of drier air to the south on Sunday.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK
No real change to the pattern with a continued NW flow aloft covering the upper Midwest with dual upper lows off to the east and dual upper-level ridges (high pressure) to the west.
The pattern next week does look unsettled at times as we see a few low-pressure systems and frontal boundaries pass through the Northland bringing chances for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms on a few days next week, but widespread rains and complete washouts look unlikely at this time.
Generally looking at a milder temperature pattern in the Northland next week with daytime highs mostly in the 70s, with a few 80s possible Monday. Note, normal highs in the Northland in late August are mostly in the mid to upper 70s.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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