5:28 PM Tuesday, September 6, 2022
Cold front will move through the Northland tonight, but this front won’t usher in cooler temperatures, but it will bring lower dew points (less humid feel) to the area on Wednesday. Not expecting any rain as this cold front moves through tonight.
Dry and mild conditions continue Wednesday, with a warm and breezy day on Thursday with increasing humidity once again, and as another cold front moves into the area, we could see some showers and thunderstorms develop in parts of the Northland late Thursday afternoon/night. There will be a rather strong cap in place ahead of the front on Thursday with 700mb temps approaching +14C, but if this cap erodes, then there is a potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms since will have enough instability along with steep mid-level lapse rates over the area, and stronger winds aloft which will increase the amount of wind shear. Again, timing of this would be late Thursday afternoon but more likely Thursday evening if storms are able to develop. Note: The main hazards from severe storms late Thursday are from large hail up to 1.50″ in diameter (ping pong ball size) and damaging winds to 60 mph.
Some rain continues to look likely in parts of the Northland Friday into early Saturday, with areas of northeast and eastern Minnesota including all of northwest Wisconsin having the greatest chance to get some rain on Friday with lower chances of rain for northern Minnesota.
MODEL RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY
The two main computer models (EURO and GFS) continue to come into better agreement regarding rainfall amounts with this late week system.
Most of this rain for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin occurs Thursday night through Friday, possibly lingering into early Saturday morning.
NWS Blend of Models agrees more with the Euro than the GFS with its rainfall forecast.
Our warmup continued today with temperatures this afternoon ranging from the middle 70s to lower 80s across the Northland with cooler 60s found closer to Lake Superior.
Highs Wednesday will be pretty similar to today with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, but Thursday continues to look like a very warm day with highs in the 80s in the Northland, with 90s forecast across much of western, central and southern Minnesota. A cooling trend begins on Friday and lasts through the weekend.
It is feeling a little more humid today with widespread 60+ degree dew points in Minnesota, but this humid air mass won’t stick around long here in the Northland as it gets pushed back to the south on Wednesday, but it will return for a brief stay on Thursday.
Will have quite a range in dew points across the area on Wednesday with 40s across northern Minnesota to the 60s in southern Minnesota.
WESTERN U.S. HEAT WAVE
A major heat wave continues over much of the western U.S. into parts of the Plains today.
Widespread 105-110+ degree temperatures once again today in California.
Here’s a look at monthly high temperature records which were set in California on Labor Day, September 5, 2022.
Source: @extremetemps
Fairfield: 117F
Sacramento Executive: 114
Sacramento Downtown: 113
Vacaville: 115
Marysville: 113 (tied)
Stockton: 112
Santa Rosa: 112
Concord: 112
Oroville: 111
Napa: 111 (tied)
Aurburn: 109 (tied)
Grass Valley: 104 (tied)
Record heat over the past 24 hours (ending 4 PM Tuesday, September 6, 2022) in orange, while magenta-colored circles represent locations which have tied or broken their monthly record high over the past 24 hours.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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