5:11 PM Thursday, September 15, 2022
Our weather won’t be changing much through the weekend.
A frontal boundary draped over northern Minnesota today will settle south into central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Lift near this boundary along with a couple disturbances moving along the boundary will help keep things a bit on the active side through the weekend. This front will also have a nice temperature gradient to work with (a sure sign of fall) with cooler temps north of the front, while much warmer temps will be found south of the front.
What we saw today is what will likely see over the next few days, with rain at times followed by some dry hours, followed by some more rain, so this rain will not be continuous through Sunday, but we’re also not looking at a day that is completely free of rain through the weekend.
The potential for thunderstorms continues to be pretty low through the weekend, but there will be enough elevated CAPE over the area to produce isolated thunderstorms with heavier rainfall rates, otherwise we’re looking at mostly light to moderate rainfall rates, and this should help reduce the threat for widespread significant flash flooding, but a few instances of flooding remain possible mostly over northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead through early Friday morning.
Fog may become an issue especially near Lake Superior over the next few days due to the added moisture from the rain, plus an onshore wind coming off Lake Superior which will add even more moisture to the air. Also of note is a gustier northeast wind which redevelops tonight and sticks around into the day on Friday with wind gusts to 30 mph possible.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast through 7 PM Friday.
RAINFALL REPORTS FOR FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2022 (THRU 4 PM)
International Falls, MN: 0.84″
Seagull Lake, MN: 0.61″
Two Harbors, MN: 0.45″
Brainerd, MN: 0.42″
Cloquet, MN: 0.39″
Saginaw, MN: 0.31″
Aitkin, MN: 0.29″
Duluth Airport: 0.27″
Eveleth-Virginia, MN: 0.26″
Littlefork, MN: 0.24″
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 0.23″
Grand Marais, MN, the Bay of Grand Marais: 0.17″
Poplar, WI: 0.17″
Esko, MN: 0.17″
Isabella, MN: 0.16″
Pine River, MN: 0.15″
French River, MN: 0.13″
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.12″
McGregor, MN: 0.11″
Bigfork, MN: 0.11″
Walker, MN: 0.11″
Washburn, WI: 0.10″
Moose Lake, MN: 0.10″
Deer River, MN: 0.09″
Cass Lake, MN: 0.08″
South Range, WI: 0.08″
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.06″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.04″
Hill City, MN: 0.03″
Flood Risk through Friday morning (7 AM)
Flood Risk 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Saturday.
Here’s a look at forecast rainfall amounts through Sunday morning.
Drought Update – September 13, 2022
1% of Minnesota is in Severe Drought, up from 0.97% last week.
10% of Minnesota is in Moderate Drought, up from 8% last week.
39% of Minnesota is Abnormally Dry, up from 25% last week.
0.70% of Wisconsin is in Severe Drought, up from 0% last week.
6% of Wisconsin is in Moderate Drought, unchanged from last week.
15% of Wisconsin is Abnormally Dry, down from 18% last week.
Drought Monitor Class Change
September 13, 2022, compared to September 6, 2022.
Yellow — Worsening drought by 1 class
Green — Drought improvement by 1 class
Gray — No change
And a look at the Drought Monitor Class Change for the Midwest for September 6, 2022, compared to September 13, 2022.
Dry soil moisture conditions continue around the head of Lake Superior including in the Twin Ports area with soil moisture of just 2 to 5% as of September 15, 2022.
Last 60 days total precipitation
July 17, 2022 – September 14, 2022.
Last 60 days departure from normal precipitation
July 17, 2022 – September 14, 2022
LONG RANGE FORECAST
Looks like we may see some changes in the pattern as we head into late next week with a chance for widespread below normal temperatures to develop from the Rockies to the Great Lakes including for us in the Northland – Only time tell.
Could see an increased risk for a frost or even a freeze in parts of the Northland late next week if this forecast verifies.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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