5:59 PM Tuesday, October 4, 2022
Mid and upper-level trough will continue to move east out of the Northern Plains and across the upper Midwest tonight and Wednesday. As this trough moves farther to the east it will run into an upper-level ridge over the Great Lakes. Result from this will be for this trough to weaken quite a bit over the next 24 hours so we’re not expecting a whole lot of precipitation in the Northland through Wednesday, mostly just some sprinkles, patchy drizzle and light rain showers from time to time.
Goes-16 water vapor loop ending 4:46 PM Tuesday, October 4, 2022.
A strong cold front will move through the Northland from NW-SE Wednesday afternoon/night. A broken band of rain showers may accompany this frontal passage but again no widespread precipitation or heavy precipitation is expected.
Precipitation forecast through 7 AM Thursday — Trace to around 0.10″ of precipitation in much of northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast through 7 PM Wednesday.
Cold air continues to build well to the north across the Nunavut region of Canada with temperatures only in the single digits below to single digits above zero this afternoon (red outlined area), with widespread 20s and 30s across northern Canada into parts of northern/eastern Alaska. The Northland will be tapping into this reservoir of cold air later this week thanks to upper-level winds coming out of the N-NW, but since it is only early October this air mass will modify quite a bit by the time it reaches this far south. Daytime highs in the 40s are expected in our area for Thursday and Friday with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s. Note: I do think will see a frost near Lake Superior for the first time this season either Friday morning or Saturday morning.
It does look like will see milder temperatures return this weekend into early next week with highs in the 50s and maybe even some 60s for early next week, but another shot of colder temperatures is possible mid to late next week.
Canada (especially the northeast part of Canada) and the Rockies will be the places to be if you want some snow over the next two weeks. Not much snow is expected, yet, in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Total snowfall forecast through October 19, 2022.
As temperatures near the surface and aloft continue to drop, and thickness values lower <540 there is a chance that will see some snow showers or mixed rain/snow showers in parts of the Northland Thursday into early Friday morning, with the South Shore of Lake Superior (northern Wisconsin) possibly seeing some lake effect precipitation early Friday morning as colder northerly winds blow across the warmer 50+ degree waters of Lake Superior.
Lake effect snow or rain is also possible off Lake Nipigon (north of Lake Superior) early Friday morning.
Here’s the NAM 3km model radar forecast for 1 AM Friday, October 7, 2022.
Thanks for reading!
Tim