6:58 PM Saturday, October 15, 2022
-Scattered rain and snow showers tonight and Sunday with blustery northwest winds with gusts to 30 mph.
-Lake effect snow machine cranks up Sunday evening along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties in northern Wisconsin with snowfall accumulations of 4-6″ or more possible by Tuesday morning especially from around the Butternut to Gile to Hurley areas. Note: Winter weather headlines will likely be needed for this lake effect snow event.
-A colder air mass builds into the Northland on Sunday with highs in the 30s to lower 40s, with even colder temperatures expected on Monday and Tuesday with highs mainly in the 30s! 850mb temperatures are forecast to bottom out at around -12C in the Northland on Monday, and this is pretty impressive for this time of year.
No change in the weather pattern yet as will see another trough deepen significantly as it digs S/SE across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley between Sunday and Tuesday with 500mb height anomalies of -2 to -4 sigma per GFS model forecast.
Number of one inch or greater snowfall events in October at Duluth, Minnesota.
2022 total (thru the 15th) 2
Normal: 1
Record: 4 set in October 1995
The mean date for the first 1.0″ or greater snowfall at Duluth, Minnesota is November 4th. This year’s first 1.0″ or greater snowfall occurred 3 weeks earlier than normal on October 14th.
Here’s a look at when the first 1.0″ or greater snowfall occurred at Duluth, Minnesota from 2017-2022.
2017: October 27
2018: October 11
2019: November 13
2020: October 17
2021: November 13
2022: October 14
Another round of measurable snow moved through parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this morning with a swath of about 1 to 2 inches of snow with a couple 3-inch totals north of Duluth.
Note: Temperatures aloft and at the surface were slightly warmer with today’s snow event compared to Friday morning’s snow event, and the result from this was for more of a rain/snow mix with no snow accumulation for lower elevation areas near Lake Superior today, while accumulating snow occurred in higher elevated areas away from Lake Superior this morning.
| Snowfall Reports from Saturday morning, October 15, 2022 Source: NWS Duluth, MN 3 E Orr, MN: 3.4″ 2 W Iron Junction, MN: 3.3″ Cotton, MN: 3.0″ Duluth, MN (Airport) 2.7″ 3 WSW Lutsen, MN: 2.5″ 3 N Shaw, MN: 2.5″ Mountain Iron, MN: 2.4″ 2 NW Fredenberg, MN: 2.0″ 5 NE Rice Lake, MN: 2.0″ 2 NNW Gary New Duluth, MN: 1.5″ 2 N Cloquet, MN: 1.2″ 1 ENE Ely, MN: 1.1″ 2 S Brimson, MN: 1.1″ 1 W Solon Springs, WI: 1.0″ 3 ENE Ball Club, MN: 1.0″ International Falls, MN: 0.8″ |
Cold cyclonic flow continues across the Northland through early next week which will mean more chances for scattered showers which will be in the form of rain or a little snow tonight due to slightly warmer temperatures, but as colder air moves in expect a transition to mostly snow showers and flurries in much of the area for Sunday and Monday.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast through 7 PM Monday.
Snow (blue)
Rain (green)
It’ll take a while, but computer models continue to show a pretty big pattern change for late next week/weekend with a chance for high temperatures to get back into the 60s in much of the Northland from around October 21-24.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
Leave a Reply