6:34 PM Sunday, October 16, 2022
A significant winter storm will impact portions of the South Shore of Lake Superior from northern Wisconsin into upper Michigan beginning tonight and lingering through early Tuesday morning.
*Total snowfall storm accumulations could reach 1 to 2 feet in parts of upper Michigan including the Michigamme Highlands with accumulations of 8 to 16 inches expected over western upper Michigan.
*Snowfall totals ranging from 4 to 8 inches with higher amounts are expected in northern Wisconsin including for Mellen, Morse, Glidden, Butternut, Hurley and Gile areas in Ashland and Iron County, and also including the Penokee Range in Iron County.
*Snowfall totals will be limited closer to the Lake Superior shoreline due to rain mixing in with the snow.
*Strong north winds with gusts of 40 to 55 mph will cause blowing and drifting snow in the Lake Superior snowbelt of northern Wisconsin and upper Michigan late tonight through Tuesday morning.
*Travel could be very difficult to impossible especially over western areas of upper Michigan late tonight through Tuesday morning.
*Gusty winds and wet snow could bring down tree branches resulting in potentially widespread power outages in upper Michigan.
*Lakeshore flooding is also likely with this storm over the Keweenaw Peninsula, and from around Big Bay to Marquette, east toward Deerton, Au Train and Munising in upper Michigan from Monday morning through Wednesday morning.
For northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin — Expect blustery conditions with N/NW winds gusting 20 to 35 mph tonight and Monday. Flurries and snow showers will continue across the Northland tonight with lingering flurries on Monday with snowfall accumulations of a trace to an inch in a few spots.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast through 7 AM Tuesday.
Snow (blue)
Rain (green)
20-to-24-foot waves are possible along portions of the south shore of Lake Superior in upper Michigan Monday into Tuesday morning.
Here’s a look at the snowfall accumulation forecast from the NWS Blend of Models.
HRRR model wind gust forecast through 2 PM ET Tuesday.
Note: The red, yellow and brown colors represent wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph.
The strongest winds are expected Monday into Tuesday.
An unusually strong (for this time of year) upper-level low will dig south-southeast out of Ontario and across the Great Lakes over the next few days with a cold northerly flow persisting on the backside of this system over the Northland through Tuesday.
Highs on Monday will only be in the low to mid 30s in the Northland, and temperatures don’t look a whole lot better on Tuesday with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Temperatures do moderate later this week with highs in the 50s and 60s looking likely in much of the Northland on Friday and Saturday.
Goes-16 water vapor loop ending 4:40 PM Sunday, October 16, 2022.
Temperatures at around 18,000 feet (500mb) are forecast to range from around -30 to -37C over Lake Superior, upper Michigan, northern Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota through Monday with the coldest air aloft moving farther off to the east for Tuesday and Wednesday.
NAM model 500mb temperature forecast through 1 AM Thursday.
Widespread freeze headlines in effect early this week stretching from eastern Colorado to Ohio south to Tennessee.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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