5:41 PM Tuesday, October 25, 2022
- A few snow flurries or sprinkles are possible tonight into Wednesday morning but little or no snow accumulation is expected for areas that do see a few flakes falling from the sky.
- Another seasonably cool day on Wednesday with highs in the 40s.
- A weak disturbance lifts NE through the area Thursday with a few rain showers possible.
- Warming trend begins Friday and these warmer temperatures will persist into early next week with highs in the 50s to around 60 from October 28 through November 1.
- A major pattern change is possible later next week – More on that below.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast through 1 PM Wednesday.
Snow (blue)
Rain (green)
Average monthly temperatures in the Northland for October 2022 are running +1 to nearly +3 degrees warmer than normal.
The greatest departures from normal when it comes to the temperatures this month have been over the western U.S. (above average anomalies) while an area of below normal temperature anomalies cover the southeast U.S.
13/25 days this month have been warmer than average in Duluth.
11/25 days this month have been cooler than average in Duluth.
It’s been a dry fall over much of the Northern and Central Plains and the upper Midwest – Here’s the last 60 days percent of normal precipitation from August 26, 2022, through October 24, 2022.
Note: Red and darker red areas=Very Dry
| Total Precipitation, Departure from Normal and Percent of Normal Precipitation for Fall 2022 (September 1 – October 24, 2022) Duluth, MN Total: 3.50″ Departure: -2.33″ below normal Percent of Normal: 60% of normal Hibbing, MN Total: 3.39″ Departure: -1.59″ below normal Percent of Normal: 68% of normal International Falls, MN Total: 3.07″ Departure: -1.70″ below normal Percent of Normal: 64% of normal Superior, WI Total: 2.70″ Departure: -3.28″ below normal Percent of Normal: 45% of normal Brainerd, MN Total: 2.47″ Departure: -2.14″ below normal Percent of Normal: 54% of normal |
LONG RANGE FORECAST
Starting to see more and more agreement in the computer models for a shift in the weather pattern as we get into late next week, but since this is still over a week out, we could still see some changes occur in the models.
Trough sets up over the Rockies with lower 500mb heights (blue and green colors) while ridging with higher 500mb heights covers the eastern U.S.
The trough out west allows for much colder temperatures to build south covering western and central Canada into the Pacific northwest and Northern Rockies later next week while much warmer temperatures cover areas from the Southern U.S. into the northeast U.S.
Snow chances are also increasing in Duluth later next week/next weekend – Here’s the EPS model total snowfall through November 9th, this is a 50-member model forecast.
There are a few members forecasting no snow in Duluth through November 9th, but there are more members that are forecasting at least some snow in Duluth starting around or after November 4th.
The pink colors represent a much more significant snowfall compared to the gray and light blue colors on the chart below.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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