5:41 PM Friday, November 25, 2022
It was a mild late November day across the upper Midwest with widespread 40s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin today, while 50s were common in southwestern Minnesota.
Highs on Saturday will range from around 40 in far northern Minnesota to the lower 50s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Cooler temperatures return Sunday with highs in the low to mid 30s which is where we should be in late November.
Note: Today, Friday, November 25 marked the 10th day this month with a high of at least 40 in Duluth. The average number of days at or above 40 in Duluth in November is 11 days.
A strong low-pressure system over west Texas this afternoon will accelerate northeast this weekend while a cold front currently over the northern Rockies moves ESE passing through the Northland on Saturday.
The cold front approaching from the west will help keep that Texas low and the precipitation with that system well to the SE of the Northland this weekend.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Friday, November 25, 2022.
Arctic air is out there, but it remains well off to our north with no signs of it pushing south until sometime later next week.
Next week does look colder in the Northland compared to the temperatures we’re seeing this week, but the greatest temperature anomalies are expected to remain over western Canada into the northern Rockies next week.
There is a chance that will see much colder temperatures push south into the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes starting on or after December 4, but there is also quite a bit of uncertainty in the computer models on how far south/east the arctic air spreads, and also the longevity of any arctic air mass.
SNOW CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK
A complex setup on the way for early next week as will be dealing with a few pieces of energy embedded in the northern stream and southern stream of the jet stream. In addition to all that, a cold front will be moving east across the upper Midwest. The amount of phasing we see with this system will determine whether or not we see a major winter storm in parts of the upper Midwest, or mostly a minor to moderate type of snowfall event, although the trend in the computer models is definitely toward this being more of a minor to moderate snowfall event.
Timing of this looks to be from Tuesday into early Wednesday.
One way to look at the spread with snow totals for early next week is by using the ensemble models and as you can see there is quite a bit of uncertainty when it comes to snow amounts and where exactly the main snow band sets up.
12z GEFS model snowfall forecast (10:1 ratio) for next Tuesday-Wednesday, November 29-30, 2022.
Blue colors <6″ of snow
Purple colors >6″ of snow
Probabilities for >3″ of snow for next Tuesday are currently highest from eastern Minnesota into north-central Wisconsin and western upper Michigan with much lower probabilities for >3″ of snow in northern Minnesota via EPS model forecast.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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