4:37 PM Wednesday, November 30, 2022
An interesting pattern ahead for December which could lead to frequent bouts of arctic air affecting the Northland, but this pattern also holds quite a bit of uncertainty as the computer models are changing quite a bit from day to day especially after the first week of December.
One of the uncertainties is whether or not the arctic air has any staying power, or will it be transient, where we see significant warm-ups between the shots of arctic air throughout the month.
Note – The last time we had a colder than average December in Duluth was in 2017 (-6.6 degrees below average)
| Here’s a look at the Climate Normals and Extremes for December at Duluth, Minnesota. Normal high on the 1st: 30 Normal high on the 31st: 21 Normal low on the 1st: 15 Normal low on the 31st: 5 Average monthly temperature: 17.2 degrees Warmest December on record: 32.7 F set in 1877 Coldest December on record: 1.8 F set in 1983 Average number of subzero days: 8 Most: 23 set in 2013 Least: 0 set in 2015, 1959, 1918, 1913, 1888, and 1877 Precipitation: 1.47″ Wettest December on record: 3.89″ set in 1979 Driest December on record: 0.07″ set in 1905 Snowfall: 18.7″ Snowiest December on record: 44.3″ set in 1950 Least snowy December on record: 0.9″ set in 1905 Average number of days with at least 0.1″ snowfall: 13 Average number of days with at least 1.0″ snowfall: 5 Here’s a look at past December snowfall totals at Duluth, Minnesota (2017-2021) 2017: 13.4″ (Below Average) 2018: 19.8″ (Above Average) 2019: 27.7″ (Above Average) 2020: 16.5″ (Below Average) 2021: 25.9″ (Above Average) |
CFS model – Long Range Outlook for December 2022
Temperature Forecast
Below average temperatures in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Blue and Purple: Below average temperatures
Orange and Red: Above average temperatures
Temperature Anomaly trend per last 5 model runs from the CFS model.
Precipitation Outlook for December 2022 per CFS model
Below average to near normal precipitation for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Green: Above average precipitation
Yellow: Below average precipitation
Precipitation anomaly trend per last 5 model runs from the CFS model.
European Model Temperature Anomaly Forecast for December 2022
For Duluth: +0.4 degrees above average.
Here’s the past 6 December 2022 temperature outlooks for Duluth per European model.
+1.0 degree above average
+1.3 degrees above average
+0.2 degrees above average
+1.6 degrees above average
+0.7 degrees above average
+0.4 degrees above average
Euro model temperature anomaly forecast for the U.S. for December 2022
Below average temps (blue)
Above average temps (yellow and orange)
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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