5:50 PM Wednesday, December 14, 2022
The second part of this winter storm arrives later tonight as low pressure currently over southeast South Dakota lifts northeast into southern Minnesota on Thursday, then will see this low finally lift off to the northeast reaching western upper Michigan by around daybreak on Saturday.
We had some thundersnow in Duluth this morning associated with the first part of this storm, and the amount of lift looks just as impressive with the 2nd part of this storm late tonight-Thursday morning, so a few more instances of thundersnow are possible in parts of the Northland.
Here’s my snowfall forecast for the 2nd part of this storm.
For Duluth — Another 12 to 18 inches of snow is possible by 6 PM Thursday in higher elevation, with 9 to 12 inches of snow possible in lower elevation (closer to Lake Superior) However, there is a chance that snow amounts will end up lower for locations below the hill in Duluth if we see more mixing occur, similar to what happened earlier today.
Note — Snowfall storm totals could end up in that 24-to-30-inch range at the Duluth Airport by Thursday evening when you combine today’s snow and what’s still to come.
- Snow continues this evening along the North Shore of Lake Superior in northeastern Minnesota.
- Areas of drizzle, freezing drizzle and some patchy fog will be found over the remainder of the Northland early this evening.
- Some rain, snow and a wintry mix will develop in northwest Wisconsin this evening.
- Heavier snow is expected to spread from northern Wisconsin back into northern/eastern Minnesota overnight tonight, and this snow will continue through Thursday morning.
- Snow continues Thursday afternoon although this snow should mostly be on the light side.
- Lingering snow showers and flurries will then continue from Thursday night through Saturday, but minimal additional accumulations are expected during that time.
For Duluth — Wet snow with heavy snowfall rates redevelop late tonight (mainly after Midnight) with snow, heavy at times continuing through mid to late morning on Thursday. Snow intensity diminishes Thursday afternoon. Snowfall rates could reach 1 to even 2″/hour for a few hours Thursday morning. Northeast winds with gusts of 30 to 55 mph are expected from late tonight into Thursday morning. Occasional whiteout and blizzard conditions are expected early Thursday morning through about mid-morning on Thursday. Some drizzle and rain could mix with the snow at times closer to Lake Superior.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast thru 6 PM Thursday.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
*Blizzard Warning remains in effect for the North Shore of Lake Superior including Duluth until 6 PM Thursday.
*Winter Storm Warning is in effect until 6 PM Thursday for the rest of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
| Updated Snowfall Reports from Wednesday, December 14, 2022 (thru 4 PM) Source: National Weather Service Duluth, MN 2 WNW Two Harbors, MN: 13.0″ Duluth, MN: 12.4″ (Official total at the NWS) SLR of 16.1:1 4 ESE Twig, MN: 11.5″ 3 SW Rice Lake, MN: 11.3″ 3 N Duluth, MN: 11.0″ 7 SSE Wales, MN: 10.5″ 3 NNE Finland, MN: 10.5″ 3 W Lester Park, MN: 10.5″ 1 ENE Cloquet, MN: 10.0″ 1 NNW Duluth, MN: 8.5″ Chisholm, MN: 8.0″ 1 NNE Hibbing, MN: 7.6″ 3 N Maple, WI: 7.0″ Cozy Corner, WI: 7.0″ 2 SW Two Harbors, MN: 6.5″ Iron River, WI: 6.5″ 2 N Solon Springs, WI: 6.0″ Gordon, WI: 6.0″ 2 NNW Washburn, WI: 4.5″ 2 SSW Ely, MN: 3.5″ Herbster, WI: 1.8″ |
Strong lift in the atmosphere will redevelop across the Northland late tonight through early Thursday afternoon as a 500mb low moves slowly ENE out of southeast South Dakota tonight. The added lift will cause heavy bands of snow to redevelop over the area late tonight.
NAM model 500mb forecast thru 6 PM Friday.
Northeast winds will increase once again near Lake Superior tonight with wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph with a chance for gusts >50 mph. The strongest winds in Duluth will occur through Thursday morning with wind speeds diminishing Thursday afternoon.
Note — Peak wind gusts from today include 59 mph at Duluth Sky Harbor Airport, and 43 mph at the Duluth Airport.
HRRR model wind gust forecast thru 7 PM Thursday.
The next batch of moisture to affect the Northland is beginning to back NW out of Illinois and Wisconsin late today.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Wednesday, December 14, 2022 (loop time ends 5:01 PM)
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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