4:58 PM Monday, December 26, 2022
The pattern remains fairly active over the next 7 days as a trough sets up over the western U.S. while a ridge sets up across the southern/eastern U.S. Several low-pressure systems should eject ENE out of that aforementioned western trough, but whether or not these systems affect the Northland will depend on the storm tracks, but I’d say the odds are pretty good that will see at least 1 or 2 systems impact the Northland by early next week.
Note — Duluth is only 1.3 inches away from setting a new record for snowiest December, but time is starting to runout to set a new record, and I’d say the chances that Duluth break’s the December snowfall record of 44.3 inches (set in 1950) aren’t looking too good right now. Looks like it will come down to two systems this week, one on Tuesday, the other Thursday-early Friday, between the two, can we squeeze out 1.3 inches of snow in Duluth? Time will tell.
A clipper system with a shot of strong warm air and moisture advection will bring some snow and a wintry mix of precipitation to parts of the Northland for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Most of this precipitation on Tuesday is expected to remain over northern Minnesota, North Shore and Arrowhead.
18z HRRR model radar forecast valid Midnight tonight to 6 PM Tuesday.
Snow (blue)
Wintry mix (pink)
Most of the snow on Tuesday should stay north of Duluth, but I can’t rule out a brief period of snow sometime Tuesday morning (in that 5 AM to 9 AM time frame) but accumulations should remain under an inch in Duluth.
Snow amounts with Tuesday’s clipper will remain on the light side ranging from a trace to an inch or two, with up to 3 inches of snow possible in the tip of the Minnesota Arrowhead.
All 20 members of the GEFS model keeps the accumulating snow confined to far northern Minnesota or even a little farther to the north through 6 AM Wednesday.
Patchy sleet or freezing rain/drizzle is possible over parts of the Northland Tuesday into early Wednesday with a chance for minor icing of around a trace or so.
An arctic air mass is on the way out and will be replaced by a milder Pacific air mass over the next several days.
*12 subzero nights so far this month in Duluth (average in December is 8 subzero nights) Most was in December 2013 with 23 subzero nights. Looks like we might get one more subzero night in Duluth tonight, but after tonight it doesn’t look like will get anymore subzero temperatures for the rest of this month and through the first week of January the way it looks now.
Average temperature and departure from normal in the Northland from December 19-25, 2022
Hibbing, MN: -6.3 F; -16.4 degrees below average
Brainerd, MN: -5.4 F; -19.9 degrees below average
Duluth, MN: -4.8 F; -19.9 degrees below average
Superior, WI: -0.4 F; -18.5 degrees below average
Two Harbors, MN: 0.6 F; -18.8 degrees below average
The last 7 days were very cold across the upper Midwest with average temperatures from December 19 through 25 running -15 to -25 degrees colder than normal.
Note — The average temperature in Minnesota from December 19-25, 2022, was -5.1 degrees, this was -20.8 degrees colder than average
Widespread cold arctic air over much of the Lower 48 over the last 7 days with the exception to this being in Maine which saw warmer than average temperatures, and also over parts of the southwest U.S. which had near normal temperatures.
We are looking at an extended period of milder temperatures across the upper Midwest for the rest of this week and into early next week and possibly beyond.
GEFS model temperature anomaly trend for December 28 through January 2.
Orange and Red – Above average temperatures
Blues – Below average temperatures
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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