Weather Blog for Duluth and the Northland

5:32 PM Monday, January 2, 2023

A tricky forecast ahead through Wednesday

• Snow amounts have been increasing for Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday in most of the model guidance today.
• Increasing northeast winds could lead to areas of blowing snow Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph are likely with gusts to 40 mph possible near Lake Superior.
• Snowfall rates approaching 1″/hour are possible Tuesday afternoon/evening across southern portions of the Northland including in Duluth.
• It’s possible that we could see the winter weather advisory upgraded to a winter storm warning in parts of the Northland especially if snow totals end up higher as indicated by model guidance.
• Temperatures in the areas which will see snow will range from the mid 20s to low 30s Tuesday and Wednesday so the snow that does fall could be a little wet, but likely not to the extent of the weight of the snow which we saw with the mid-December winter storm.

Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for Tuesday through Wednesday (ending 6 PM Wednesday)

I did increase snow amounts in the Twin Ports with 4 to 7 inches of snow possible by early Wednesday evening. This increase in snow amounts is due to the potential for some lake enhanced snowfall late Tuesday into Wednesday combined with the snow associated with the actual low-pressure system.

A very sharp northern gradient in the snow is still expected with some north/south fluctuations likely.

*Here’s what may lead to lower snowfall amounts in parts of the Northland Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday*

-High pressure building into Ontario and Hudson Bay with dry air over northern Minnesota and northern Lake Superior, this could eat away at an area of snow as it lifts north into our area on Tuesday.

-The dry air may also cause the snow to start later as it may take several hours for the atmosphere to moisten enough before snow reaches the ground.

*A few things which may lead to higher snow amounts and possibly an upgrade from a winter weather advisory to a winter storm warning in parts of the Northland including Duluth*

-Lake enhanced/lake effect snow along the South Shore of Lake Superior to the Twin Ports and possibly up toward Two Harbors with winds out of the northeast, and possibly east-northeast from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. This threat for lake enhanced snow is diminished a bit due to the milder temperatures in place as 850mb temperatures will only be around -3 to -5C through Wednesday. Typically, you want to see the 850mb temps around -10C or colder for a greater chance for lake enhanced snow.

-A longer duration time where the main band of heavier snow lifting north out of southwest Minnesota stays in place over southern portions of the Northland Tuesday afternoon through much of Tuesday evening with snowfall rates approaching 1″/hour, and then additional bands of light to moderate snow through the day Wednesday.

Timing

It will likely take some time for the snow to push north into southern parts of the Northland on Tuesday, but this should happen by mid to late afternoon, and then we should see bands of snow impact southern parts of the Northland through Wednesday with snow gradually ending Wednesday night/early Thursday morning.

For Duluth — Occasional flurries, snow showers and patchy freezing drizzle through early Tuesday afternoon. A steadier snow arrives late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening around 3 PM to 6 PM.

18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM Wednesday.

The red outlined area represents where the dry air is expected to saturate slowly Tuesday afternoon leading to the development of snow later in the day Tuesday. Farther north the dry air should win out with no snow expected Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Ice Accumulation Forecast

Highest amounts of ice from freezing rain are expected from south-central Minnesota into central Wisconsin, but a light glaze of ice is possible in far southern portions of northwest Wisconsin.

Winter Weather Headlines

A larger view of the various winter weather headlines.

Storm Track Forecast

This will be another slow-moving low-pressure system as it moves from far western Oklahoma early this evening to far southeast Wisconsin but not until around daybreak on Thursday.

As the low moves farther to the ENE out of western Iowa it will begin to weaken as indicated by the rising pressure going from around 996mb Tuesday evening to 1008 by Wednesday evening.

As low-pressure lifts farther northeast across the central Plains through midweek it will run into a building ridge with increasing 500mb heights, this will force this system to track more easterly, and eventually east-southeast into the Midwest later this week while also weakening as it does so.

You can see how this plays out on this 500mb animation valid from 6 PM Monday to 6 PM Thursday.

A strong area of low pressure and upper-level trough is making its way out into the central Plains by way of the Rockies this afternoon.

Water vapor loop ending 3:10 PM CT, Monday, January 2, 2023

A full-blown mid latitude cyclone on display today with cold air to the NW of an area of low pressure (red L on image) while very warm temperatures were found SE of the low today.

Snow and freezing rain occurring in the colder air NW of the low today, while fog, showers and thunderstorms occur in the warmer air farther to the southeast.

Incredible amounts of moisture for this time of year with widespread 60s to lower 70s dew point temperatures stretching from central Oklahoma to the southern half of Missouri south to the Gulf Coast this afternoon.

This very humid air mass is one ingredient which is fueling the severe weather over parts of the southern U.S. over the next 24 hours.

Thanks for reading!

Tim