5:35 PM Tuesday, January 10, 2023
- If you like warm January temperatures, you’re in luck as our thaw continues with daytime temperatures in the low to mid 30s on Wednesday followed by a brief ‘cool down’ Thursday and Friday but temperatures late this week will still be slightly warmer than average for this time of year with highs in the 20s.
- Widespread 30s and possibly even a few 40s are looking likely this weekend (Sunday), and the mild temperatures keep on going into next week.
Air Quality Alert has been extended until 6 PM Wednesday, January 11th for central and northwest Minnesota (orange area on map)
Note — This appears to be the worse stagnation event in Minnesota since 2005 according to the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency.
Discussion from the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency
-Light winds combining with moisture from melting snow will trap fine particulate pollution near the surface in central and northwest Minnesota through the day Wednesday with air quality improving later in the day Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region.
-Fine particle levels are expected to reach red air quality index category, a level considered unhealthy for everyone, across far western Minnesota (Moorhead area) and also over parts of the Twin Cities Metropolitan area.
4 PM AQI (Air Quality Index) Tuesday, January 10, 2023.
Where is the arctic air?
It’s all bottled up over Russia, Kazakhstan and Mongolia (Eurasia region) and there really aren’t any signs showing up in the computer models for this arctic air to return to the Northland looking out the next two weeks.
12z European model from 1/10/2023 initialized temperatures as low as -80 F over Eurasia Tuesday morning.
There’s also another chunk of arctic air over far northern Canada — So, yes, the arctic air is out there, and it is plenty cold, but again no signs showing up in model data for this cold air to penetrate very far south anytime soon.
A very stagnant weather pattern as of late with a pocket of cooler temperatures (but still mild for January) around the Buffalo Ridge in southwest/far western Minnesota thanks in part to persistent freezing fog and low-level cloudiness, while milder temperatures surround this pocket of cooler temperatures, while temperatures are even warmer (downright balmy for January) if you travel far enough to the south.
A strong low-pressure system is forecast to move NE out of the southern Plains over the next few days, but this system won’t be bringing any precipitation to the Northland as the storm track is way too far south. The bulk of the precipitation associated with this system will fall as rain, although some wet snow or a wintry mix is likely on the far north fringes of the precipitation shield, but a significant winter weather event is unlikely.
A chaotic surface pattern will prevail into Wednesday as several generally weak systems pass through the upper Midwest which will bring just enough forcing with them to produce areas of snow showers and patchy freezing drizzle, but no major snow accumulations are expected with snow totals generally an inch or less through early Thursday morning.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast through 6 AM Thursday.
Areas of freezing drizzle will persist tonight through Wednesday morning along the North Shore of Lake Superior with a glaze of ice likely.
Another area of freezing rain/freezing drizzle is expected later tonight into Wednesday morning over parts of southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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