5:03 PM Monday, January 9, 2023
Air Quality Alert is in effect for central and northwest Minnesota until Noon Tuesday, January 10. Note — This is the first air quality alert in Minnesota in 18 months.
Source: Minnesota Pollution Control Agency
Air quality is expected to reach orange in central and northwest Minnesota which is unhealthy for sensitive groups.
Light winds combined with moisture from melting snow is trapping fine particulate near the surface in central and northwest Minnesota through Noon Tuesday.
Air quality will gradually improve Tuesday afternoon as winds increase which will improve dispersion and bring clearer air from the west.
3 PM Air Quality Conditions
A messy pattern will remain in place through midweek as a couple disturbances pass through the upper Midwest.
The first moves through the region tonight followed by a somewhat stronger system for Wednesday.
The system for Wednesday looks to have stronger forcing compared to the one tonight, so snow chances are higher on Wednesday compared to tonight, but the system on Wednesday moves through rather quickly which should limit the amount of snow that falls in the Northland.
Here’s the 500mb forecast through 6 PM Wednesday.
Patchy freezing drizzle and snow showers are possible across parts of the Northland tonight and Tuesday, with some terrain enhanced snow possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior in northeastern Minnesota.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast through 6 PM Tuesday.
NWS Blend of Models Snowfall Forecast through 6 PM Wednesday.
Two areas of higher snow amounts, one over portions of central Minnesota (Brainerd Lakes, I94 corridor toward the Hinckley and Siren areas with 1-2″ totals, and the other along the North Shore of Lake Superior due to some lake/terrain enhanced snow late tonight through Wednesday as winds will be out of the east-southeast with snow totals in these areas in the 1-4″ range)
Note — An inch or less of snow is expected in Duluth on Wednesday, but there are some differences in the computer models regarding where a band of snow sets up on Wednesday, so these totals in the Duluth area may increase slightly over the next 24 hours.
Patchy icing is possible due to freezing drizzle in parts of the Northland for tonight and Tuesday with the greatest ice accumulations ranging from 0.05″ to 0.10″ along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
Although temperatures continue to look warmer than average across the Northland into much of next week, there are cooler risks starting to appear at least on the GEFS model for next week especially in the black outlined area on map.
EPS model temperature anomaly forecast for 1/16-1/21/2023
GEFS model temperature anomaly trend (last 3 model runs)
Valid 1/16-1/21/2023
Orange and Red: Above average temperatures
Blues: Below average temperatures
Looking ahead to next week’s pattern features broad troughing over the western U.S. while a ridge covers the eastern U.S., this type of pattern could lead to more frequent chances for some snow or mixed precipitation in the upper Midwest next week, but it’s too early to tell if any of this precipitation would be significant or not.
One chance for snow or mixed precipitation comes early next week the way it looks now as low-pressure approaches from the western High Plains.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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