5:39 PM Wednesday, January 11, 2023
A brief pattern change will occur the next few days, and it’s one that may even give us some sunshine for Thursday and Friday, but we’re also looking at cooler temperatures with highs in the 20s which is still slightly warmer than average for mid-January, while lows for Thursday night and Friday night range from around zero to the 10s above zero. It will turn blustery tonight into Thursday as north to northwest winds increase with gusts to 30 mph, but this wind will also bring an end to the poor air quality which has plagued much of Minnesota the last few days.
An upper-level disturbance moving ESE across the Northland has produced some snow in parts of the area today with brief bursts of heavier snow mixed in as well.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Wednesday, January 11, 2023 (loop time ends 4:11 PM CT)
Scattered snow showers will linger in the Northland tonight, then the focus for snow showers will shift mostly to the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin on Thursday.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast through 6 PM Thursday (snow in blue)
Snowfall Reports from Wednesday, January 11, 2023
Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota
3 NNW Mahtowa, MN: 1.3″
7 WSW Pine River, MN: 1.2″
Duluth, MN: 1.1″ (Official Total at the NWS) Snow to Liquid Ratio of 37:1
Moose Lake, MN: 1.0″
1 ESE Nisswa, MN: 1.0″
Snowfall accumulations ranging from a trace to 4 inches are expected through Thursday evening along the South Shore in northern Wisconsin with the highest snow amounts setting up from around Mellen, Clam Lake and Glidden, east to the Hurley and Gile areas.
Less than an inch of snow is expected tonight in northeast Minnesota including for Duluth.
Milder temperatures return this weekend with Sunday looking like the warmest day of the weekend this is when we could see widespread 30s in the Northland with even a few 40s possible since the upper Midwest looks to be firmly in the warm sector of a low-pressure system with southerly winds across the region.
Note — About the only thing that could keep us from hitting 40 on Sunday would be if we see low clouds, haze and fog redevelop, and this is a possibility if winds aren’t strong enough to produce enough mixing in the atmosphere.
The pattern next week looks like it could be pretty active although at the moment it looks like the storm track sets up too far to the south which will lessen the potential for a more major snow or mixed precipitation event impacting northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin next week. Instead, we’re looking at mostly light precipitation (if anything falls at all) at times in the Northland next week.
Colder risks are starting to show up in the computer models but not until later this month.
Below average temperatures (blue, green and purple on the map) are possible in the Northland for the January 21-26 time frame per Euro ensemble forecast.
GEFS model temperature anomaly trend for January 21-26, 2023
Blue and purple: Below average temperatures
Orange and red: Above average temperatures
Thanks for reading!
Tim