Snow in parts of the Northland tonight and Thursday — Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories in effect; Gusty NE winds near Lake Superior with areas of blowing snow tonight and Thursday

6:12 PM Wednesday, January 18, 2023

  • Accumulating snow late tonight into Thursday for all of northwest Wisconsin, and from eastern to northeastern Minnesota. Snowfall rates of up to 1″/hour are possible Thursday morning in parts of northwest Wisconsin.
  • Strong northeast winds near Lake Superior of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph tonight and Thursday with areas of blowing snow. Winds diminish by mid to late afternoon on Thursday.
  • Travel will be difficult in parts of the Northland due to the snow and areas of blowing snow tonight and Thursday.
  • Temperatures for areas that will see snow tonight and Thursday will range from the middle 20s to lower 30s.

Lake effect snow showers will be found along the North Shore of Lake Superior and in Duluth this evening, and then will see snow associated with the winter storm over the Plains lift northward into eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin after Midnight tonight, and this snow will persist through the day Thursday before ending late Thursday afternoon/evening.

Note — Snow tapers off in Duluth between 6 PM and 8 PM Thursday.

18z NAM 3km model radar forecast through Midnight Thursday night.

The wind direction will be favorable for some lake enhanced/lake effect snow near Lake Superior (yellow outlined area on map) tonight, and then shifting mostly to the South Shore of Lake Superior on Thursday as winds shift more out of the N-NE.

The only real limiting factor for lake effect snow are the 850mb temperatures which are still not that cold, but cold enough to produce some lake effect, and we may see the 850mb temperatures fall a few more degrees later tonight into Thursday, perhaps as low as -10 or -11C which may be a little more favorable for lake enhancement.

Here’s my updated snowfall forecast.

For Duluth — Total snowfall accumulations of 2 to 5 inches by Thursday evening.

WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES

*Winter Storm Warning in effect from late tonight through Thursday evening for parts of northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Port Wing, Bayfield, Washburn, Iron River, Cable, Hayward, Winter, Ashland, Mellen, Glidden and Butternut.

*Winter Weather Advisory in effect from late tonight through Thursday evening for parts of northeast Minnesota including the cities of Duluth, Cloquet, Moose Lake, and for parts of northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Superior, Solon Springs, Danbury, Grantsburg, Siren, Minong, Shell Lake, Spooner, Hurley and Gile.

It’s going to be windy near Lake Superior tonight and through about midday tomorrow with northeast winds gusting 20 to nearly 40 mph.

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A winter storm is moving across the Plains today bringing heavy snow and mixed precipitation to Nebraska and Iowa with rain and a threat for severe thunderstorms in the warmer air south of the low which was over southeast Kansas late this afternoon.

STORM TRACK

Low pressure over southeast Kansas this afternoon will move into far western Illinois around daybreak on Thursday and then this low will reach far southeast Lower Michigan by Thursday evening (6 PM)

A strong mid/upper-level trough and low will continue to lift northeast out of the central Plains tonight and Thursday.

An impressive storm lifting NE out of the Plains this afternoon.

Goes-16 sandwich satellite loop from Wednesday, January 18, 2023 (loop time ends 3:56 PM CT)

And a look at today’s storm on Goes-16 water vapor imagery (loop time ends 4:21 PM CT, Wednesday, January 18, 2023)

Some impressive snowfall totals today in Nebraska with a few locations reporting a foot of snow through late this afternoon, and more snow will continue to fall tonight with snowfall storm totals of up to 2 feet possible in parts of central Nebraska by Thursday morning.

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SEVERE WEATHER

Tornado Watch is in effect until 8 PM this evening for parts of eastern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, western Mississippi and southwest Tennessee.

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with a risk for damaging wind gusts, isolated tornadoes and possibly some large hail exists on Thursday over parts of Ohio and eastern Indiana.

This is a little unusual to see a severe risk this far north in mid-January.

Quite a temperature difference today with arctic air around Hudson Bay Canada while it’s feeling a little like summer near the Gulf Coast and southeast U.S. today.

-45 F at Eureka, Nunavut, Canada; 85 F at Corpus Christi, Texas at 4 PM CT today, now that’s an impressive temperature contrast (130-degree difference!)

Thanks for reading!

Tim

1 Comment

  1. Daniel G. says:

    As an Australian who found this through an ad on Tumblr, I’ll be sure to keep a lookout for the storm, Tim!

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