5:37 PM Thursday, February 2, 2023
A strong upper-level low (piece of the Polar Vortex) was over Hudson Bay Canada this afternoon and this upper low will track southeast into the northeast U.S. on Friday.
An epic arctic air mass consisting of 850mb temperatures as low as -40C covered much of central Ontario today with the southern flank of this arctic air extending south into the Northland today with 850mb temperatures ranging from around -22 to -30C.
500mb heights were as low as 473m today near the center of the upper-low over Hudson Bay.
Temperatures from late Thursday afternoon.
Here are the record low temperatures for February 3rd
Brainerd, MN: -46 set in 1982
International Falls, MN: -42 set in 2022
Hibbing, MN: -36 set in 2022
Duluth, MN: -33 set in 1923
Ashland, WI: -28 set in 1946 and 1978
Lows in the 20s to 30s below zero across all of the Northland tonight.
For Duluth — Wind Chill Warning in effect until 12 PM Friday.
Wind chill forecast from the National Weather Service.
Note — The coldest temperatures and wind chills will occur overnight tonight through about mid-morning on Friday, or from around 1 AM tonight to 8 AM Friday.
This arctic air mass will cover all of central/eastern Canada south into the upper Midwest, Great Lakes and northeast U.S. Friday morning as seen on the precipitable water forecast with values less than 0.05″ which is a sign of an arctic air mass. No moisture at all!
Lots of lake effect clouds and some lake effect snow today in the NW wind favored snowbelts from far northern Wisconsin to upper Michigan.
Temperatures at 5000 feet ranged from -24 to -32C today while water temperatures on Lake Superior were sitting at around +2C, this huge difference in temperature plus a wide-open lake is generating a lot of lake effect clouds over Lake Superior today.
Ice coverage on Lake Superior was close to 10% as of February 1st. This is still well below average for this time of year (should be around 30 to 35% ice covered by now)
Goes-16 visible satellite loop ending 4:21 PM CT, Thursday, February 2, 2023.
There could be a little warm air advection driven snowfall in far northeast Minnesota (north of Duluth) Friday night, but snowfall accumulations should remain under an inch.
Another shot for a little snow comes Saturday night-Sunday morning but once again snow amounts look to remain under an inch.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast through 6 AM Saturday.
A warmer pattern takes over this weekend into next week with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s with even a chance for warmer temperatures up around 40 degrees toward the middle of next week.
Looks like will be done (for now) with the subzero temperatures in Duluth after Saturday morning.
GEFS model temperature anomaly trend for February 6-11, 2023.
Orange and Red: Above average temperatures
Blues: Below average temperatures
And looking even further ahead to mid-February still shows warmer than average temperatures in the Northland.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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