5:58 PM Monday, February 13, 2023
- Scattered rains or a wintry mix arrives Tuesday morning
- Steadier and somewhat heavier rain Tuesday afternoon/evening
- Changeover from rain to wet snow spreads SE across the Northland Tuesday evening-Wednesday morning
- Falling temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday could lead to icy surfaces
- Strong NW winds on Wednesday with wind gusts 25 to 45 mph.
- Isolated power outages possible on Wednesday due to the gusty winds and snow laden trees and branches, this risk is highest across northern Minnesota
- Ponding of water due to poor/blocked drainage is possible
- Potential for ice jams. Watch nearby rivers for rapid rises.
If all this precipitation were to fall as snow with this upcoming system, we’d be looking at widespread snow totals of 6-12″+ across the Northland, but that won’t be the case with this system, instead we’re looking at a lot of rain in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with a mix of rain/snow changing to snow across northern Minnesota.
All of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin is in line to get anywhere from a half inch to an inch of total precipitation (rain + snow) Tuesday through Wednesday.
Here’s my preliminary snowfall forecast for Tuesday evening through Wednesday.
Overall looks like a swath of about 3 to 5 inches of wet slushy snow west/north of Duluth with lower snow totals farther south/east.
For Duluth — 1 to 3 inches of wet snow accumulation in higher elevation late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Snow totals of a trace to 2 inches in lower elevation closer to Lake Superior.
FALLING TEMPERATURES
It’ll be another mild day on Tuesday with temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Temperatures crash late Tuesday night-Wednesday.
Temperatures in Duluth go from around 38 at 3 AM Wednesday to around 24 by 9 AM Wednesday to around 19 by 12 PM Wednesday.
HRRR model temperature forecast valid Midnight Wednesday to 12 PM Wednesday.
The system which will impact the Northland for Tuesday and Wednesday was over the southwest U.S. today but will be lifting quickly to the northeast over the next 24 to 48 hours.
A nice spin noted with this system over the southwest U.S. today.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Monday, February 13, 2023 (loop time ends 3:46 PM CT)
There will be a lot of warm air out ahead of this system with strong southerly winds bringing not only warm air to our area but also increasing amounts of moisture.
Once the low pulls off to the east cold air will move in but this likely won’t happen until later Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning with the colder air moving southeast across our area.
Note — Today, Monday, February 13 marked the 3rd consecutive day with a high of at least 40 degrees in Duluth. Average number of days at or above 40 in Duluth in February is 2. Record for most 40-degree days in February is 14 set in 1877.
Temperatures will continue to be well above average in the Northland on Tuesday, but a brief shot of colder air works in for mid to late week.
A strengthening low-level jet coming out of the south at 40 to 55+ knots brings warm air and moisture advection northward into the Northland on Tuesday while cold air advection moves into our area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as low pressure pulls off to the east.
A moisture laden system ahead with PWATS of around 0.50″ to as high as 0.80″ moving over the Northland for Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Breaking down the timing and precipitation types in 3-hour increments using the NAM 3km model.
Colors in all the images below
Green: RAIN
Blue: SNOW
Pink: MIX PRECIPITATION
Summary — Scattered rain or mixed precipitation is possible over parts of the Northland Tuesday morning before a steadier precipitation spreads north Tuesday afternoon.
The changeover from rain to wet snow moves SE across the Northland Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning, starting first in western/northwest portions of the area, and latest in northwest Wisconsin, far eastern Minnesota and near Lake Superior.
9 AM Tuesday
12 PM Tuesday
3 PM Tuesday
6 PM Tuesday
9 PM Tuesday
12 AM Wednesday
3 AM Wednesday
6 AM Wednesday
Putting it all together — Here’s the NAM 3km model radar forecast valid from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM Wednesday.
For Duluth — A changeover from rain to wet snow occurs early Wednesday morning from around 2 AM to 4 AM with some wet snow expected through Wednesday morning before tapering off Wednesday afternoon. Note — Lower elevation closer to Lake Superior may see a later changeover from rain to snow compared to higher elevation areas.
20-member GEFS model precipitation type forecast
6 PM Tuesday
Rain (green)
Snow (blue)
All 20 members show rain in Duluth at 6 PM Tuesday.
6 AM Wednesday
Majority of the members show snow in Duluth at 6 AM Wednesday, but there a few which show rain (about 2 or 3 of them)
Finally, a look at the lack of ice on Lake Superior (green areas represent ice) via Goes-16 Day Cloud Phase Imagery with the loop time ending at 3:46 PM CT, Monday, February 13, 2023.
Only 5% ice concentration on Lake Superior as of February 12. Mean ice concentration on Lake Superior at this time of year is 40%.
Thanks for reading!
Tim