6:02 PM Tuesday, February 14, 2023
Rain continues in the Northland this evening, but we will see the rain change to snow in northwest portions of the area (northern Minnesota) before Midnight, and this changeover from rain to snow will spread farther southeast across the area overnight/early Wednesday morning.
For Duluth — Rain changes to snow early Wednesday morning between 3 and 6 AM. Snow ends late Wednesday morning or early Wednesday afternoon with some sun returning during the afternoon.
Falling temperatures and strong northwest winds spread southeast across the Northland late tonight through Wednesday morning. Colder air and strong winds reach the Twin Ports around 5-7 AM Wednesday morning.
HRRR model radar forecast through 6 PM Wednesday.
Widespread liquid equivalent precipitation totals ranging from around 0.50″ to 1.10″ are expected in the Northland through early Wednesday afternoon.
-Ponding of water due to poor/blocked drainage is possible due to the rain across east-central Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin and near Lake Superior tonight.
-Ice Jams are also possible on area rivers and streams. Watch for rapid rises.
Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for tonight and tomorrow.
Highest snow amounts of 2 to 4 inches west-northwest of Duluth, and also over portions of northwest Wisconsin along the South Shore of Lake Superior where a gravity wave lake effect snow band is expected to setup for several hours on Wednesday affecting portions of Douglas and Bayfield Counties, and possibly into southeast Carlton and northeast Pine County in Minnesota.
For Duluth — Snowfall totals of a trace to 2 inches are possible Wednesday morning.
Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for portions of north-central and northeast Minnesota this evening through 12 PM Wednesday, and from 6 AM to 6 PM Wednesday in parts of northwest Wisconsin including Douglas and Bayfield Counties, south/east of the city of Superior.
COLDER AIR ON THE WAY
Temperatures will be dropping in a big way over the next 12 to 18 hours as a colder air mass moves into the Northland in wake of today’s system.
Temperatures in the 30s early Wednesday morning are expected to fall to the single digits, teens and 20s by early Wednesday afternoon, and to around 10 below to 10 above zero for Thursday morning’s lows.
For Duluth — Temperatures in the mid 30s early Wednesday morning (4 AM) falling to around 20 by 9 AM Wednesday, and in the teens for Wednesday afternoon.
HRRR model temperature forecast valid from Midnight tonight to 6 PM Wednesday.
Moderate to Minor winter storm impacts are expected in much of the Northland late tonight through early Wednesday afternoon.
The greatest threat may be from a flash freeze scenario where the rain from today and this evening turns to a layer of ice due to falling temperatures Wednesday morning.
Expect hazardous driving conditions in parts of the Northland late tonight through early Wednesday afternoon.
STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
North to northwest winds will be increasing late tonight over western portions of the Northland and these strong winds will spread farther southeast across the Northland Wednesday morning. Wind gusts of 25 to 45 mph are likely across the area late tonight through Wednesday although winds will diminish a bit by Wednesday afternoon.
For Duluth — Strong northwest winds arrive between 5-7 AM Wednesday with wind gusts of 25 to 50 mph. Expect blustery conditions through the day Wednesday but the strongest wind gusts should occur before Noon.
HRRR model wind gust forecast valid from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM Wednesday.
Strong area of low pressure was near Sioux City, Iowa late this afternoon. This low will lift northeast passing near Ironwood, Michigan early Wednesday morning.
Lots of warm air ahead of the low with much colder air behind the low today.
MRMS radar snapshot (3D) from late Tuesday afternoon showing just how large this system is that is impacting the Northland.
Temperatures at 850mb or 5000 feet are still warm enough to where we’re seeing rain in the Northland late this afternoon and expect that trend to continue into early this evening before colder air begins to push southeast out of northwest Minnesota with 850mb temps dropping to 0C and even lower.
An impressive looking system heading northeast across the Central Plains today.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Tuesday, February 14, 2023 (loop time ends 3:56 PM CT)
Water vapor loop of today’s system (loop time ends 3:56 PM CT, Tuesday, February 14, 2023)
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK
Computer models at least right now are showing a rather interesting pattern setting up for next week with a big-time temperature gradient possibly setting up from north to south across the U.S.
This temperature gradient could foster storm development and or an overrunning precipitation event where warm/humid air lifts north into an arctic air mass sometime mid to late next week, also of note is the potential for a period of east to northeast winds with a cold air mass running down Lake Superior which is pretty much wide open to support a lake effect snow event later next week. A lot can and probably will change between now and then, but right now the pattern is looking interesting! Stay tuned.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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