5:20 PM Friday, February 24, 2023
The weather pattern stays active with a weak system passing through the Northland tonight which will lead to a few hours of fluffy snow.
Will get a break from the snow this weekend but a stronger system moving across the Midwest could bring more snow and even some freezing rain to the Northland late Sunday night through Monday night.
Another system is showing up for the middle of next week, and perhaps even another one for next weekend, but whether or not those systems impact the Northland remains to be seen.
A fast-moving disturbance (green/yellow colors on animation below) will track east-northeast out of South Dakota tonight, and this system will bring a few hours of snow to much of the Northland from mid to late evening into early Saturday morning.
NAM model 500mb forecast through 6 AM Saturday.
For Duluth — Snow begins around 9 to 10 PM tonight, snow ends early Saturday morning between 1 and 3 AM.
NAM 3km model radar forecast valid 6 PM Friday to 6 AM Saturday.
Snow tonight will be on the fluffy side with the cold air mass still in place.
Expect anywhere from a trace to as much as 2 inches of fluffy snow in the Northland later tonight/early Saturday morning with the greatest chances for up to 2 inches of snow over parts of northwest Wisconsin.
We’ve seen an increase in ice coverage at the head of Lake Superior (Duluth Harbor area), but this is mostly due to the strong NE winds the last few days which pushed some of the ice which was over the South Shore of the lake farther to the west into the head of the lake.
Ice concentration on Lake Superior was still only at around 7% as of February 23, this is well below the mean which is around 45% in late February.
A big clash in temperatures continues today with 80s over the southeast U.S. and near the Gulf Coast while an arctic air mass remained over the Northern Plains into much of Canada today.
Low Temperature Reports from Friday morning, February 24, 2023
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Embarrass, MN: -29
2 E Celina, MN: -28
Brimson, MN: -28
2 S Tower, MN: -28
Cotton, MN: -27
Floodwood, MN: -26
Hibbing, MN: -25
Ely, MN: -24
Cook, MN: -24
International Falls, MN: -24
Eveleth, MN: -23
Cass Lake, MN: -23
3 E Wright, MN: -22
Brainerd, MN: -22
Bigfork, MN: -20
Grand Rapids, MN: -20
Longville, MN: -20
Aitkin, MN: -20
Pine River, MN: -18
Orr, MN: -18
Walker, MN: -18
Hayward, WI: -17
Grand Marais Airport: -17
Cloquet, MN: -17
4 W Clam Lake, WI: -17
Siren, WI: -16
Spooner, WI: -16
Two Harbors, MN: -15
Superior Airport: -14
Hinckley, MN: -13
McGregor, MN: -13
Duluth Airport: -13
Butternut, WI: -12
Moose Lake, MN: -8
Solon Springs, WI: -6
Ashland, WI: -6
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: -4
- 8 subzero nights so far this month in Duluth. Mean number of subzero nights in February is 10 (1991-2020 climate period)
- 25 subzero nights so far this winter in Duluth. Mean number of subzero nights in a winter season, or from December 1 to February 28 is 32 subzero nights (1991-2020 climate period)
A strong low is impacting much of California today with heavy rain and some flooding along with heavy snow and blizzard conditions in higher elevation. There’s even been some snow in pretty low elevation in parts of California today.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Friday, February 24, 2023 (loop time ends 3:46 PM CT)
An unusually strong upper-level system with 500mb heights of 527 decameters is moving into California tonight while a strong ridge of 594 decameters is in place over Florida.
The upper low near California has an anomaly of -3.4 sigma today, while the ridge near Florida has an anomaly of +3.1 sigma per GFS model data.
The system affecting California today will move quickly to the ENE over the next few days reaching southern Iowa around daybreak on Monday, this system combined with some additional energy off to the northwest could bring some wintry precipitation to the Northland next Monday-early Tuesday, but it’s still a little early to tell if this will be a significant snow/ice event or more of a light to moderate type of event.
Note — After the system early next week there is another system which could affect parts of the Northland during the middle of next week, and this one could bring some snow to parts of the area depending on the track of the low.
Euro model continues to be the most aggressive when it comes to the amount of freezing rain/ice accumulation late Sunday night into Monday morning, with areas of east-central Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin receiving the bulk of the ice accumulations according to the Euro model.
The National Blend of Models shows more widespread icing from freezing rain across the Northland for late Sunday night-Monday, but with smaller amounts of ice accumulation.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
There is a potential for severe thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night across portions of the Central Plains, with the greatest chances covering a portion of far northern Texas into central Oklahoma, but a risk for severe storms extends as far north as southeast Nebraska and as far south as west-central Texas.
Thanks for reading!
Tim