6:16 PM Saturday, February 25, 2023
A messy system is expected to impact portions of the Northland on Monday.
- East-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin: Freezing rain or sleet Monday morning with some ice accumulation expected. Precipitation changes to snow or a mix of rain/snow Monday afternoon.
- Northeast Minnesota including the Twin Ports: Some freezing rain or sleet Monday morning changing to snow Monday afternoon.
- Precipitation is expected to end across the Northland Monday night.
- Winter Storm Watch has been issued for parts of northwest Wisconsin for Monday including the cities of Minong, Trego, Spooner, Shell Lake, Hayward, Loretta, Winter and Exeland. Plan on slippery road conditions on Monday.
- There remains some uncertainty on ice and snow amounts in the Northland, but there is at least some potential for a significant amount of either ice or snow accumulations or both in parts of the Northland, and it’s possible that we will see additional winter weather headlines issued farther to the west to include eastern and northeast Minnesota and the South Shore area of northwest Wisconsin for Monday.
ICE POTENTIAL
Temperatures aloft or at 850mb/5000 feet are expected to warm above freezing, ranging from +1 to +4C Monday morning which will support rain as the precipitation type in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Monday morning, but as that rain falls and hits the surface it will freeze on contact due to the temperatures being colder at the surface.
Surface temperatures are expected to range from the mid 20s to around 30 degrees in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Monday morning which sets the stage for ice accumulations from freezing rain.
Euro model continues to be pretty aggressive with ice accumulations for Monday across east-central Minnesota north to Duluth and into much of northwest Wisconsin with some areas picking up between 0.10″ to 0.30″ of ice.
National Blend of Models (NBM) also shows some ice accumulation, but not quite as significant compared to what the Euro model is showing but this is due to several models which make up the NBM, so all the models included in the NBM are averaged out to come up with a forecast.
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
Here’s what I have for potential snow amounts for Monday’s system. Keep in mind that adjustments to this forecast are possible over the next 24 hours or so.
For Duluth — Total snowfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible from Monday into Monday evening.
Precipitation is forecast to spread into western and southern portions of the Northland early Monday morning with precipitation moving into the Twin Ports between 4-7 AM Monday the way it looks now.
Precipitation will end from west to east Monday evening.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid Midnight Monday to Midnight Tuesday.
Freezing rain/Sleet (pinks and purples)
Snow (blue)
Here’s a look at the intense low-pressure system continuing to impact California today. This is the same system that will impact the Northland on Monday.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Saturday, February 25, 2023 (loop time ends 5:51 PM CT)
An unusually strong upper-level low moving ashore into southern California late today.
Temperatures are only in the mid to upper 40s this afternoon in Los Angeles.
STORM TRACK
Low pressure deepens from around 987mb to around 979mb as it moves northeast out of eastern Colorado reaching southern Iowa around daybreak on Monday. This low is then expected to continue moving off to the northeast, passing near/north of the Chicago area during the day Monday.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
A significant severe weather event is possible late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night over portions of the central and southern Plains with widespread damaging wind gusts some possibly an excess of hurricane force (74 mph) possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle across much of Oklahoma, into extreme southern Kansas and southern Missouri.
Damaging Wind Probabilities for Sunday.
A few tornadoes are also possible on Sunday from southern Kansas to central Oklahoma to the eastern Texas Panhandle.
Some large hail is also possible on Sunday.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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