6:14 PM Monday, February 27, 2023
A brief break in the active weather occurs on Tuesday with some sun expected, but another fast-moving system moves this way out of the Northern Rockies late Tuesday night into Wednesday and this one will be a colder system meaning that precipitation will be all snow if this system tracks far enough to the north to affect the Northland as there are some differences on the track of this next low in model guidance today.
Ice Accumulation Reports from Monday, February 27, 2023
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
1 NNE Hayward, WI: 0.30″
Brule, WI: 0.30″
6 SW Finlayson, MN: 0.25″
2 N Webb Lake, WI: 0.20″
4 NW Minong, WI: 0.18″ (Trees heavily laden with ice)
Duluth, MN: 0.15″ (official total at the NWS)
Snowfall Reports from Monday, February 27, 2023
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
4 WSW Bayfield, WI: 5.0″
French River, MN: 5.0″
Gile, WI: 3.5″
4 WNW Washburn, WI: 3.0″
Ashland, WI: 2.5″
Duluth, MN: 0.2″ (official total at the NWS)
Snow will diminish by mid to late this evening along the North Shore and over the Arrowhead, and also in northwest Wisconsin. Additional snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are likely in those areas this evening.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast through Midnight tonight.
NEXT SYSTEM LINED UP
Still some uncertainty on the track of the system for Tuesday night into Wednesday, but there is a chance for some snow in parts of the Northland especially from east central Minnesota into parts of northwest Wisconsin, to possibly as far north as the Twin Ports and Grand Rapids.
Note: The pattern quiets down locally later this week, but I’m seeing signs in model guidance for a more active period of weather late this weekend into next week with more chances for precipitation (snow or other types?)
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid Midnight Tuesday night to 6 PM Wednesday.
Here’s my preliminary snowfall forecast for late Tuesday night/Wednesday.
Duluth — Trace to 2 inches of snow is possible from this next system.
Note: Snowfall gradients will likely shift around a bit over the next 24 hours, and snowfall totals could increase or decrease.
Strong area of low pressure which brought ice and snow to much of the Northland today was centered near Chicago, Illinois late this afternoon. This low will continue to move off to the east/northeast as it passes through the southern half of Lower Michigan tonight.
And this system is a strong one as evident by the swirl via satellite imagery today.
Goes-16 sandwich loop from Monday, February 27, 2023 (loop time ends 3:51 PM CT)
Spring warmth continued in the central and southern U.S. with temperatures in the 60s, 70s, and 80s today.
Meanwhile off to the north widespread arctic air continues with temperatures anywhere from the teens below to the 30s below zero today.
No big warmups in the Northland this week, but also a lack of arctic air so in the end we’re looking at temperatures which should end up slightly warmer than average through Saturday.
Note: Normal highs in the Northland this week range from the upper 20s to lower 30s with normal lows in the single digits to lower teens.
Colder risks are showing up for next week. How cold? To be determined.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK
Another multiday severe weather event is possible late this week across parts of the southern/southeast U.S., with tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail all possible.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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