5:39 PM Sunday, March 5, 2023
*Temperatures in the 60s as far north as southern Iowa this afternoon with 70s and even a few 80s a little farther south.
*3 to 8 inches of snow has accumulated today near the Bismarck, ND area.
*An MD (mesoscale discussion) is out for southern Minnesota for wet heavy snow and some more thundersnow through this evening.
- Some snow is likely in southern portions of the Northland, or from east-central Minnesota to the Twin Ports into all of northwest Wisconsin from late this evening through about midday on Monday, but don’t be surprised if some sun also makes an appearance by Monday afternoon.
- Most of this snow will miss northern Minnesota tonight and Monday.
- Northeast winds ramp up near Lake Superior through Monday with wind gusts of 20 to around 30 mph possible.
- Highs on Monday will range from the low to mid 30s, so road conditions should improve a bit by Monday afternoon for areas that end up getting some snow accumulation later tonight/Monday morning.
No big changes to my updated snowfall forecast for tonight through Monday.
Duluth: 1 to 2 inches of snow is possible by Monday afternoon.
Note — Lake enhanced snow doesn’t look like a real big threat even though winds will support it as they will be coming out of the east-northeast through Monday, but temperatures aloft will only be around -8C which just isn’t cold enough to support more significant lake enhanced snow near Lake Superior including in the Twin Ports late tonight and Monday.
There’s very little ice covering Lake Superior with only around 15% ice coverage as of March 4th, 2023, normal ice concentration in early March is around 50%.
As a forecaster you do become a little concerned that lake effect snow could become more of an issue with such small amounts of ice on the lake, but again temperatures just don’t look cold enough to support much lake enhanced snow with this event late tonight and Monday, but as always will see how things play out.
Strong lift represented by the orange, red, purple and blue colors on the animation below will lift ENE through south-central Minnesota into central Wisconsin tonight into early Monday morning. This stronger lift will likely help produce brief but heavy snowfall rates in the aforementioned areas for a few hours tonight/early Monday.
Note — The bulk of this stronger lift passes south of the Northland tonight, but will still see some enhanced lift across eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin which will lead to some bursts of moderate snow late tonight-early Monday.
NAM model 700mb forecast through 3 PM Monday.
Snow will continue to develop/overspread the southern half of Minnesota this evening, and eventually will see this snow move farther north into east-central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin by mid to late this evening/overnight.
Snow tapers off from west to east during the day Monday.
For Duluth: Some snow gradually develops late tonight, most likely after Midnight, and expect some snow to stick around through Monday morning and into early Monday afternoon before the snow wraps up mid to late afternoon on Monday.
European model radar forecast through 3 PM Monday.
Snow (blue)
Rain (green)
Wintry mix (pink)
It’s a messy surface pattern this afternoon with multiple fronts out there along with a few areas of low pressure. The main system is the one farther south across eastern Colorado and eastern Nebraska, and those areas of low pressure will continue to track off to the east tonight.
There is some weak elevated instability and steep mid-level lapse rates (outlined in black on map) over southwest Minnesota this afternoon which will spread farther ENE tonight. This instability has helped to generate a few thunderstorms this afternoon in southwestern Minnesota.
Satellite imagery certainly shows convective type elements in the precipitation this afternoon over southern Minnesota (yellow areas on the animation)
Goes-16 infrared satellite loop from Sunday, March 5, 2023 (loop time ends 5:01 PM CT)
MID TO LATE WEEK SNOW CHANCES?
The overall pattern is chaotic this week meaning that if you’re hearing about the possibility for a major snow event hitting Duluth or other parts of the Northland, well don’t believe it at this point, or believe it, it’s really up to you.
Massive ridging stretching from Alaska through northern/eastern Canada to the Great Lakes to the southern US while a strong trough will be located over the Atlantic, with another trough over the Pacific northwest. How all of this evolves throughout the week is very uncertain right now, but with the strong ridge NE out our area, one would think that any system coming out of the northwest US would tend to move more SE or underneath said ridge, and if that is the case, then much of the Northland would probably miss out on getting much snow later this week.
There is also the potential that will see several smaller waves move out of the western US, and not just one single storm, and if that is the case then multiple rounds of mostly light snow could occur in parts of the upper Midwest from mid to late week.
As always, stay tuned!
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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