6:41 PM Saturday, March 4, 2023
Sometimes the computer models are in real good agreement on an upcoming snow event, this isn’t one of those times as the computer models couldn’t be any further apart in regard to the approaching system for Sunday night and Monday, this in turn makes this a low confidence forecast.
For once we’re actually seeing the GFS agree somewhat with the Euro model with this system, but it’s the NAM, HRRR, RAP, UK and to some extent the Canadian model which show quite a bit more snow and is also farther north compared to the more southern solution offered up by the GFS and Euro camp. Which camp wins? Only time will tell, but past experience (20 some years of doing this) with model mayhem like we’re seeing right now tells me to go more with the Euro and GFS solutions over the farther north solutions.
Note — 62% of Euro ensemble models were showing 4″ or more of snow in Duluth 24 hours ago for the Sunday night-Monday time frame, but fast forward 24 hours, and today only 16% or 8 out of the 50 EPS members are showing 4″ or more of snow in Duluth for Sunday night-Monday, that is a drastic change in only 24 hours. Low end snowfall range for Duluth is 0″, high end range is 7″ per the Euro ensemble model for Sunday night-Monday.
- No weather issues in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin during the day Sunday. Dry with temperatures in the 30s to around 40 degrees.
- Some snow is possible Sunday night into Monday mainly from east-central Minnesota to the North Shore, and also in all of northwest Wisconsin. A lesser chance for snow across northern Minnesota.
- Snow that falls and accumulates will likely be the wet type of snow due to temperatures being warmer compared to the last snow event from a few days ago.
- Gusty east winds are still possible near Lake Superior Sunday night into Monday with wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph (possibly stronger) Patchy blowing snow could develop especially if we get some new snow.
- The chances for lake enhanced snow along the North Shore Sunday night and Monday is lower compared to the system from a few days ago due to temperatures being warmer with this next event. 850mb temperatures are forecast to be at around -8C Sunday night and Monday which may be just a little too warm for there to be much lake involvement with this event, but some orographic enhanced snow is still possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior with east winds crossing Lake Superior for Sunday night and Monday.
- Duluth only needs an additional 0.5 inches of snow to get to 100 inches of snow for the 2022-2023 winter season, so I’m pretty sure this next snow event for Sunday night and Monday will be able to squeeze out at least a half inch of snow in Duluth to get us to the 100″ mark!
Here’s the setup for Sunday night.
Low pressure over western Ontario with a cold front trailing southwest from that low, while another area of low pressure is forecast to be over eastern Nebraska. Both lows will move generally toward the east through Monday, while the cold front associated with the Ontario lows moves slowly SE into northern/western Minnesota from Sunday night through Monday.
Snow or a mixture of precipitation gradually develops across southern Minnesota Sunday afternoon, and this precipitation should lift slowly N/NE into southern portions of the Northland Sunday night with some additional precipitation possible on Monday. Precipitation types in the Northland should mainly be in the form of snow.
Euro model radar forecast valid from 12 PM Sunday to 6 PM Monday.
Snow (blue)
Rain (green)
Mix (pink)
Here’s my snowfall forecast for Sunday night through Monday (ending at 6 PM)
Duluth — 1 to 2 inches of wet snow is possible.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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