6:05 PM Thursday, March 16, 2023
Snow will continue to fall across the Northland tonight, but the snow should taper off to flurries and snow showers from SW-NE during the night, but then will see the second part of this system dig S/SE out of Manitoba on Friday with some additional snow showers and flurries likely which will probably continue into Saturday morning before this entire system exits off to the east.
Highest additional snowfall accumulations through Saturday morning will be found north/east of Duluth, including for the Borderland/Arrowhead, and also along portions of the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin.
For Duluth — An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow through Saturday morning, with a trace to 2 inches closer to Lake Superior (lower elevation).
Seasonal snowfall total at Duluth for 2022-23 is at 119.2 inches which ranks as 7th snowiest season on record (thru 4 PM, March 16th) Still need an additional 16.2″ of snow to tie, and 16.3″ of snow to break the record from 1995-96 (135.4″) It’s going to be close!
Snowfall Reports for March 16, 2023 (thru 5 PM)
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
3 NNW Mahtowa, MN: 4.7″
3 E Payne, MN: 4.0″
1 N Cloquet, MN: 4.0″
Wright, MN: 3.5″
1 NNE Cloquet, MN: 3.0″
Duluth, MN: 2.8″ (Official total at the NWS thru 4:10 PM Thur.)
4 WNW Red Cliff, WI: 2.5″
Carlton, MN: 2.5″
3 WSW Lester Park, MN: 2.5″
3 N Amnicon Falls State Park, WI: 2.4″
2 N Lester Park, MN: 2.0″
7 SW Tower, MN: 2.0″
2 NNE Duluth, MN: 1.5″
12 N Grand Rapids, MN: 1.0″
3 NNE Duluth, MN: 1.0″
International Falls, MN: 0.6″
Part one of this system continues tonight – NAM 3km model radar forecast through 7 AM Friday.
Note — Snow tapers off in Duluth later tonight around 11 PM to 1 AM.
Part two and final part of this system Friday-Saturday morning – NAM 3km model radar forecast valid 7 AM Friday to 1 PM Saturday.
Snow showers will move south/southeast across the Northland with heavier lake effect snow expected along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin.
Here’s a forecast animation of the upper low/trough swinging through the upper Midwest on Friday per EPS model — Note the blue and even some purple colors on the loop, this indicates a deepening mid/upper-level system as it moves SE across the area on Friday before exiting off to the east on Saturday.
Gusty north to northwest winds will impact the Northland over the next few days. Wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph, possibly as high as 45 mph are expected tonight through Saturday.
HRRR model wind gust forecast through 12 PM Saturday.
Temperatures won’t be feeling like March the next few days as a much colder airmass moves into the Northland.
Lows tonight and Friday night will be in the single digits and teens with highs Friday in the upper teens to middle 20s. Highs Saturday will be in the low to mid 20s.
HRRR model temperature forecast through 7 AM Saturday.
Low pressure was over west-central Wisconsin late this afternoon with another low over north-central Missouri. Both of these lows will be moving to the ENE through Friday.
A strong temperature gradient is in place today with teens over North Dakota, 40s in southern Wisconsin and 60s in central Missouri.
Late season brand of arctic air pouring south out of Manitoba today with 850mb temperatures as low as -20C, this airmass will be over the Northland on Friday and Saturday.
Another system possible mid to late next week.
First system (outlined in yellow on map) impacting the Northland tonight exits off to the east on Saturday, but there’s another system (outlined in red) which will move into the western US early next week, and this one could impact parts of the Northland sometime around March 22-24, but precipitation types/amounts, and the storm track is still uncertain this far out, but just something to keep an eye on for now.
Tim
