5:58 PM Wednesday, March 15, 2023
Another winter storm on the way!
Potential Impacts for Thursday and Friday
-Moderate to heavy snowfall rates approaching a half inch to an inch an hour possible at times Thursday afternoon and evening mainly from eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin including the Twin Ports and Arrowhead.
-Rapid buildup of snow/slush on roads under the heaviest snow bands Thursday afternoon/evening.
-North winds with gusts of 15 to 30 mph develop on Thursday and continue through Friday. Stronger wind gusts to 40 mph are possible.
-Patchy blowing snow possible Thursday afternoon through Friday.
-Temperatures ranging from around 30 to 35 Thursday morning and afternoon, falling to the 20s late Thursday afternoon/evening.
-Much colder on Friday with highs in the low to mid 20s.
Dual lows, one over western South Dakota, the other over eastern Colorado late this afternoon. Both lows will move east or east/northeast over the next 24 hours eventually meeting over Lake Michigan late tomorrow night.
Temperatures are in the 60s and 70s this afternoon in Nebraska into parts of southern South Dakota with much colder temperatures NW of the lows today.
***For Duluth*** Some light rain, sleet or snow is possible early Thursday morning. Snow develops before Noon Thursday (somewhere in the 8 AM to 11 AM time frame) Snow continues Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening with moderate to heavy bursts of snow possible. Snow tapers off late Thursday night around Midnight, with scattered flurries/snow showers to follow on Friday. Total snowfall storm accumulations of 4 to 6 inches possible by 7 AM Friday.
Here’s my updated snowfall forecast through 7 AM Saturday — Note: Bulk of this snow falls Thursday and Thursday night with lingering snow showers expected Friday-Saturday morning but additional snowfall accumulations during that time should only be around an inch or so. The exception to this is along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin where lake effect snow is likely Friday and continues into Saturday morning with several more inches of snow expected, thus snowfall storm totals in that area could get into the 12-16″ range by Saturday morning.
Some tweaks to my snowfall forecast are possible tonight/Thursday morning for this event. If anything, I may need to lower the snow totals a bit in some parts of the area.
Here are the latest winter weather alerts in the Northland issued by the National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota.
Note — The winter storm warning for Duluth goes until 1 PM Friday, but I think this warning will be cancelled well before 1 PM on Friday the way things are looking on the computer models late this afternoon, but will see.
Scattered precipitation in the form of light snow, rain, sleet and perhaps some patchy freezing rain will develop in parts of the Northland Tonight into early Thursday morning, but no major impacts are expected. Snowfall totals <1″ are possible tonight in northern Minnesota, with a light glaze of ice also possible.
NAM 3km model radar forecast through 7 AM Thursday.
The brunt of this next storm hits during the day Thursday and continues into Thursday night.
Snow is forecast to spread E/NE into the Northland Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon. The snow could start as rain or sleet especially in eastern Minnesota, Twin Ports and in northwest Wisconsin with a light glaze of ice accumulation possible.
Temperatures aloft (5000 feet) are forecast to range from around 0 to +5C at 7 AM Thursday falling to around -5 to -10C Thursday afternoon which will cause any rain or sleet to changeover to snow during the day Thursday.
Steady snow tapers off to flurries and snow showers from SW-NE late Thursday night/Friday morning.
NAM 3km model radar forecast valid 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM Friday.
HRRR model wind gust forecast valid from Midnight tonight to 1 PM Friday.
Tim
