5:54 PM Sunday, March 19, 2023
After a day of seasonable temperatures in the Northland today, will see a return to cooler temperatures on the first official day of spring on Monday, this is especially true near Lake Superior as a northeast wind develops on Monday, and another round of accumulating snow looks pretty likely for late Tuesday through Wednesday morning with a few to several inches of new snow possible across the Northland, winter weather headlines may be needed for some parts of the Northland for this midweek system. So, all in all typical early spring weather is on the way across the Northland this week.
The system for Tuesday night does move through quickly so it won’t stick around long, but snowfall rates could be moderate to heavy at times for several hours Tuesday night, and with this snow falling mostly at night we won’t have the help of the warmer March sun angle if this snow was falling during the afternoon, so we should see rapid snow accumulations on the roads Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning in parts of the Northland.
High of 35 in Duluth today (normal high is 37 on March 19th) Only 1 day so far this month with a temperature of 40 or warmer. Average number of days at or above 40 in March in Duluth is 10 days (1991-2020 climate period).
Winds shift to the NE on Monday and with plenty of cold air (-12 to -18C 850mb temps) moving over the lake we could see a few lake effect snow showers along the South Shore west toward the Twin Ports on Monday, then shifting to the North Shore Monday night/Tuesday morning. Any lake effect snow that develops shouldn’t amount to much from Monday through Tuesday morning.
NAM 3km model radar forecast valid 7 AM Monday to 7 AM Tuesday.
Here’s my preliminary snowfall forecast for late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning (ending 10 AM Wednesday)
There are two areas which could see around 6 inches of snow, one across north-central Minnesota, the other is along the North Shore of Lake Superior where east winds coming off Lake Superior should cause some orographic enhanced snowfall Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures aloft don’t look cold enough for lake enhanced snow along the North Shore of Lake Superior, so orographic lifting it is for this event.
Note — I’m forecasting 3 to 5 inches of snow for the south side of Duluth and also for Superior, with 5 to 7 inches of snow on the north/northeast side of the city of Duluth for late Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
Totals and gradients could change a bit over the next 24-30 hours.
Two jet streaks of note for Tuesday night (outlined in white on the map) should enhance the amount of lift in the atmosphere which should lead to some heavier bands of snow lifting NE out of western and central Minnesota (outlined in red on map) Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
At the moment it looks like will see snow overspread the Northland generally from SW-NE late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening with snow continuing through the overnight before ending from SW-NE around the mid to late morning hours on Wednesday.
For Duluth — Snow begins late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening between 4 PM and 7 PM. Heaviest snow overnight Tuesday. Snow tapers off between 8 AM and 10 AM Wednesday. A few lake effect flurries are possible during the day Tuesday before the system snow begins Tuesday evening.
European model radar forecast valid from 4 PM Tuesday to 12 PM Wednesday.
Snow (blue)
Rain (green)
Widespread record or near record cold over the past 24 hours (ending 9 AM Sunday, March 19, 2023) anywhere you see a blue circle on the animation below.
The good news is that after this midweek system, the rest of this week does look mainly dry across the Northland, but the overall pattern remains active, but we’re looking at a split flow type of pattern, so a lot of the systems later this week/next weekend look like they will miss us well to the south.
The pattern doesn’t change much as we head into the last few days of March with an active pattern still in place across the U.S. It will just come down to storm tracks as to whether or not any of these systems impact the Northland the week of March 27th.
Multiday severe weather threat returns to portions of the southern U.S. late this week.
Thursday’s risk for possible severe storms (yellow on map) covers parts of Oklahoma and Texas.
The risk for possible severe storms (yellow on map) shifts farther east on Friday with this risk area extending from extreme southeast Texas to Tennessee.
Tim
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