6:23 PM Monday, March 20, 2023
*Quick hitting snowy system impacts the Northland late Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning.
*Heaviest snow is expected from around mid or late evening on Tuesday through early Wednesday morning this is when we could see snowfall rates approaching 0.5″/hour, to as high as 1.0″/hour in north-central and northeast Minnesota.
*Winter Storm Warning in effect from late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for the North Shore of Lake Superior in northeast Minnesota including the cities of Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Finland and Grand Marais. Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for parts of north central Minnesota including the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake, Walker, Pine River, Orr, Crane Lake and Ely. Note — Additional advisories could be issued by the NWS for other parts of the Northland for the late Tuesday-early Wednesday time frame.
*Snow could mix with or change to some rain or drizzle early Wednesday morning mainly from eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.
*Snowfall totals for this next system have decreased a bit in parts of northwest Wisconsin while snowfall totals haven’t changed much for northeast Minnesota.
*Gusty NE winds near Lake Superior will cause areas of blowing snow Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning.
*Travel conditions could be difficult due to the snow and some blowing snow Tuesday night, but conditions should improve by Wednesday afternoon as temperatures climb into the mid 30s to around 40 degrees.
I did make a change or two to my snowfall forecast with lower snow totals now expected in parts of northwest Wisconsin.
Twin Ports area — A range from 5 to 7 inches of snow on the N/NE side of the city of Duluth, to 3 to 5 inches of snow on the south side of Duluth and also for Superior. Bulk of this snow falls Tuesday night.
Additional changes to my forecast are possible over the next 24 hours.
One thing I am a little concerned about is how fast this system moves through, that plus the storm track is still shifting around just a bit, and if this system tracks even slightly farther west, then snow totals could decrease a bit in Duluth.
A few lake effect snow showers are possible late tonight and through the day Tuesday mainly along the North Shore of Lake Superior, and then will see snow spread NE across the area beginning late Tuesday afternoon with snow continuing overnight before ending sometime around or a little after sunrise on Wednesday the way it looks now.
Timing for Duluth — A few lake effect flurries or snow showers possible during the day Tuesday. A steadier snow begins late Tuesday afternoon around 4-6 PM, snow continues through the night before ending Wednesday morning between 5-7 AM.
NAM 3km model radar forecast valid 7 AM Tuesday to 1 PM Wednesday.
An area of low pressure is forecast to move quickly northeast out of southeast South Dakota late Tuesday afternoon, passing near/west of Duluth around 7 AM Wednesday, and reaching the Thunder Bay area by early Wednesday afternoon. Note — The track of this low has shifted a little farther west compared to 24 hours.
Temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s are expected Tuesday afternoon in southeast Minnesota and southern Wisconsin with colder temperatures likely farther to the northwest.
East winds will increase near Lake Superior on Tuesday with wind gusts from 25 to 40 mph possible. Winds will decrease during the day Wednesday.
European model wind gust forecast valid 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday.
-A snow depth of at least 20 inches has been reported at the National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota every day since December 15th, 2022.
-The last time the snow depth was below 2 feet at the NWS in Duluth was on February 22nd (23 inches)
-Snow depth as of Monday morning, March 20th was 33 inches at the NWS in Duluth.
-The way its looking, it may very well be late April or even early May before the snow depth falls to 0″ at least on top of the hill in Duluth, but of course this could happen a lot sooner if we get a significant/prolonged warm spell and or a couple of rain events over the next few weeks which would then accelerate the snow melt, but given the fact there’s still a 33 inch snow depth on top of the hill, and assuming we melt about an inch of snow per day, it would then take until late April (around the 22nd) for all the snow to melt on top of the hill in Duluth, and that’s assuming we don’t add even more snow to the existing snow pack.
If we get through next week without at least one storm impacting the Northland will be doing pretty good I think as next week’s pattern looks very active as a series of troughs/low-pressure systems (blues on the loop below) move onshore into the western US, but where these lows go after that is anyone’s guess at this point.
European model 500mb forecast valid March 26-30, 2023.
Tim
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