6:54 PM Monday, April 10, 2023
-Flood Advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota for portions of east central, north central and northeast Minnesota including the following areas, Aitkin, Crow Wing, Pine, Cass, Itasca, Carlton and St. Louis Counties. And for the following areas in northwest Wisconsin Ashland, Bayfield, Burnett, Douglas, Iron, Sawyer and Washburn Counties. The flood advisory is in effect until 12:30 PM Thursday.
-Flooding caused by snowmelt is expected.
-Minor flooding and ponding of water in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Overflowing poor drainage areas. River or stream flows are elevated.
-At 12:46 PM Monday, Spring snow melt has begun and will continue with above normal temperatures this week. A near record amount of water stored in the snowpack will be released. This will cause rapid snowmelt runoff and lead to ponding of water and quick rises on streams and rivers. Minor flooding is expected to begin shortly in the advisory area.
-If you live in an area that has previously experienced spring flood impacts, expect to experience those same problems again this year.
All of the rivers across the area remain below flood stage (green icons on map) as of 2:23 PM Monday, April 10, 2023, but this will likely be changing the next few days.
This map shows the probability (50% chance) that either minor, moderate or major flooding will occur on various rivers across the area. This map was last updated at 2:27 PM Monday, April 10, 2023.
Purple icons=50% chance of major flooding
Red icons=50% chance of moderate flooding
Orange icons=50% chance of minor flooding
Our next chance at getting some precipitation in the Northland comes late this week into this weekend as an area of low pressure and upper-level trough move east out of the Rockies. This system is forecast to deepen (green colors on the animation below) as it moves into the Great Lakes late this weekend/early next week.
There continues to be some uncertainty in the computer models regarding precipitation totals in the Northland late this week into this weekend, and also on whether or not there will be enough cold air wrapping into the backside of this system for the rain to change to some snow sometime this weekend.
Here’s the EPS model 500mb forecast valid from Friday through Monday, April 14-17, 2023.
NWS Blend of models total precipitation through 7 AM Monday, April 17, 2023 — Over an inch of precipitation is possible across parts of northern Minnesota with precipitation totals ranging from around a half inch to an inch across the rest of the Northland.
Rain chances increase first in northern Minnesota Thursday, and then in northwest Wisconsin by Friday night into this weekend the way it looks now.
12z GEFS model total snowfall (using a 10:1 ratio) thru 7 AM Monday, April 17, 2023
Blue colors: 2″+ snowfall
Purple colors: 6″+ snowfall
As you can see below there is still quite a bit of uncertainty on if there will be any snow in the Northland this weekend, and if there is snow how much will accumulate. Stay tuned.
Warming trend continues the next few days with the peak of the warmth moving overhead for both Tuesday and Wednesday when 850mb temperatures peak in the +15 to +20C range in the Northland. Note — If we had a lot less snow on the ground then these types of temperatures aloft would certainly support 80 degree or warmer temperatures at the surface, but with so much snow still on the ground this will likely hold temperatures in the 60s with a few 70s also possible Tuesday and Wednesday.
European computer model 850mb temperature forecast valid 7 AM Tuesday to 7 PM Thursday.
Another mild day ahead on Tuesday with highs in the 60s to lower 70s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with even warmer temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s across southern Minnesota into west central Wisconsin.
Note — Temperatures closer to Lake Superior could turn much cooler during the afternoon if an east wind develops which some of the computer models are showing for Tuesday.
Overnight temperatures will likely remain above freezing across much of the Northland tonight through Friday night with sub-freezing temperatures not returning until this weekend, so we’re looking at nonstop snowmelt day and night through Friday.
An impressive ridge for this time of year covering the Rockies today with 500mb heights peaking at 585 decameters near the core of the upper ridge today. This ridge will be sliding farther off to the east through Wednesday.
Tim
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