6:16 PM Tuesday, April 18, 2023
We’ve got a messy system taking aim at the Northland over the next few days.
This system will bring just about everything to the Northland with rain, sleet, isolated thunderstorms, strong NE winds near Lake Superior, along with some wet snow and possibly even some freezing rain.
It’s another complex setup as one low lifts east-northeast out of southwest North Dakota while another low is forecast to develop over northern/eastern Iowa early Thursday morning, and that low lifts N/NE reaching the Arrowhead of Minnesota or a little farther east by Friday morning. A very large upper-level low will also be moving east out of the northern Plains over the next few days.
An initial round of a wintry mix including freezing rain, sleet and wet snow along with some rain is forecast to impact portions of the Northland on Wednesday. Much of the day will only see some patchy drizzle and light precipitation, but there could be a few periods of moderate to heavy precipitation rates during the day Wednesday. Note: Northern Minnesota could miss out on most of the precipitation on Wednesday, but there is uncertainty in the computer models on how far north the precipitation will get Wednesday with some models showing precipitation much farther north compared to other models.
NAM 3km model radar forecast valid from 1 AM tonight to 7 PM Wednesday.
Widespread precipitation totals of 0.50″ to over 1″ are possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin thru Friday morning with the bulk of this precipitation occurring late Wednesday night into Thursday night the way it looks now.
Here’s my preliminary snowfall forecast thru 7 AM Friday.
Couple of notes here — The greatest chance for a trace to 1″ of snow in much of northwest Wisconsin will be on Wednesday as precipitation that falls after Wednesday should mostly be in the form of rain.
Much of the snow in northern Minnesota won’t occur until Thursday/Thursday night.
Duluth area: Trace to 1 inch of total snowfall between Wednesday and 7 AM Friday.
FREEZING RAIN/ICE POTENTIAL
There continues to be a chance for some freezing rain with some ice accumulation in some parts of the Northland, especially in northeastern Minnesota in the higher terrain along the North Shore and on top of the hill in Duluth, but given the fact that we’re heading into late April it will be probably be pretty difficult to get a lot of ice to accumulate on the roads, but higher elevated surfaces including trees and powerlines could be more susceptible for some ice accumulation Wednesday night and Thursday.
Euro model shows upwards of a quarter inch of ice accumulation in Duluth (0.24″)
Note — Remember how aggressive the Euro model was with ice accumulations in Duluth with the last system a few weeks ago which had potential to be a pretty significant ice storm in the Twin Ports but in the end it wasn’t.
Euro ensemble model or the EPS model has a low-end ice amount of 0.00″ to a high-end amount of 0.44″ in Duluth.
NWS Blend of Models shows 0.09″ of ice accumulation in Duluth.
HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT
Scattered heavy downpours are possible Wednesday from eastern Minnesota into much of northwest Wisconsin which could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.
The risk for flash flooding shifts a little farther to the east for Thursday and covers much of northwest Wisconsin.
STRONG WINDS
East to northeast winds will be increasing near Lake Superior and the Twin Ports on Wednesday with wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph with even stronger winds possible on Thursday with wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph possible.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
Elevated CAPE (instability) could increase enough to where we see a few thunderstorms in far southern parts of the Northland (area outlined in green on the map) early Wednesday morning.
A few thunderstorms (green outlined area on map) are also possible over a larger portion of the Northland for Wednesday/Wednesday night.
Active pattern continues.
One very large system is lifting slowly ENE across northeast Canada today, this is the same storm that brought very heavy snow and blizzard conditions to northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota on Monday.
Looking farther west across the Rockies, that’s the next system which will be impacting the upper Midwest over the next few days.
Goes-16 water vapor loop ending 5:50 PM Tuesday, April 18, 2023.
Tim
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