6:35 PM Friday, April 28, 2023
A significant late season winter storm is possible in parts of northern Wisconsin and western/northern portions of upper Michigan (South Shore area) beginning late Saturday night and lingering into Monday.
A slow moving and strong surface and upper level-low pressure system will move northeast out of southern Wisconsin on Saturday and then this system will become nearly stationary over the Great Lakes through Monday. Colder air on the backside of this system along with persistent north winds crossing Lake Superior will lead to several days of lake enhanced precipitation (rain and wet snow) in northern Wisconsin and upper Michigan from Saturday through Monday with total precipitation of 1 to 3 inches or more possible in some areas by Monday afternoon.
Wet heavy snow is also expected at times from late Saturday through Monday in northern Wisconsin and western/northern upper Michigan especially in the higher terrain inland from Lake Superior. Significant snowfall accumulations >6 inches are possible which could lead to tree and power line damage due to the heavy and wet nature of this snowfall.
Some snow is also expected Saturday night into Sunday in far northeast Minnesota with some accumulation possible in the higher terrain inland from Lake Superior.
Note — I’m not expecting any accumulating snow in Duluth on Sunday, but there could be times where the rain does mix with slushy snow especially on top of the hill.
STORM SETUP
24-Hour Precipitation Totals (ending 6 PM Friday, April 28, 2023)
Source: MesoWest
Washburn, WI: 0.86″
Minong, WI: 0.73″
Ashland, WI: 0.72″
Poplar, WI: 0.72″
Hayward, WI: 0.70″
Siren, WI: 0.69″
Bayfield, WI: 0.62″
Clam Lake, WI: 0.56″
Glidden, WI: 0.37″
Hinckley, MN: 0.37″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.26″
Cass Lake, MN: 0.19″
Deer River, MN: 0.18″
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.13″
Longville, MN: 0.10″
Walker, MN: 0.10″
French River, MN: 0.10″
Brainerd, MN: 0.09″
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.08″
Moose Lake, MN: 0.07″
Duluth Airport: 0.07″
Superior Airport: 0.06″
Cloquet, MN: 0.06″
McGregor, MN: 0.05″
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 0.04″
International Falls, MN: 0.04″
Two Harbors, MN: 0.03″
Eveleth-Virginia, MN: 0.03″
Pine River, MN: 0.02″
Total precipitation thru 7 PM Monday (Additional Precipitation amounts)
1 to 3 inches or more of precipitation is possible along the South Shore in northern Wisconsin with a half to an inch or more of precipitation possible in far northeast Minnesota.
Flood Watch remains in effect through Sunday evening for parts of northeast Minnesota, and for most of northwest Wisconsin.
-Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be possible.
-Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks.
Here’s my snowfall accumulation forecast from late Saturday night through Monday (ending at 7 PM Monday)
The first part of this system continues tonight with more rain across northeast and east central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, but this rain should gradually diminish a bit through the night.
Note — There is a chance for some of this rain to become mixed with wet snow tonight-early Saturday morning along the North Shore of Lake Superior (higher terrain inland from Lake Superior), and also in parts of northern Wisconsin.
HRRR model radar forecast through 9 AM Saturday.
Rain (green)
Snow (blue)
2nd part of this storm arrives Saturday night and continues through Sunday night as precipitation pushes west/south into northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with rain and wet snow expected.
NAM 3km model radar forecast valid 1 PM Saturday to 1 AM Monday.
Snow (blue)
Rain (green)
Tim
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