5:31 PM Tuesday, May 2, 2023
An amplified pattern continues today with strong upper-level lows/troughs covering the Great Lakes and California, while a strong ridge was sandwiched between the eastern and western troughs.
Temperatures underneath the 500mb trough remained in the 30s and 40s today, while the farther west you go the warmer it gets with temperatures in the 70s and even some 80s this afternoon from Montana northward into Alberta and Saskatchewan Canada. In the middle is where you can find temperatures which are close to seasonal values on this 2nd of May with temperatures in the mid 50s and low-mid 60s.
Note — High of 57 at the Duluth Airport today (May 2, 2023) which is right at the normal high for today’s date, but you have to go back to April 15th for the last time Duluth had an above average temperature, so closing in on 3 weeks ago!
Highs Wednesday will warm into the mid to upper 60s in north central Minnesota which is above normal in early May, but temperatures will trend cooler the farther east you go with highs in the 50s to lower 60s in northern Wisconsin, and in the upper 50s to low-mid 60s in northeast Minnesota.
Note — Wednesday will likely be the last day without an east wind in Duluth, but after Wednesday we’re looking at a prolonged period of easterly winds which could last a good 5 days or more. What this means is that daytime temperatures near Lake Superior will only be in the upper 30s and 40s starting on Thursday and lingering thru the weekend and possibly even into early next week, so if you prefer milder spring temps, then make sure to enjoy the temperatures on Wednesday.
High temperatures for locations farther inland from Lake Superior will likely be in the 50s and 60s Thursday thru this weekend.
There’s been a lot of precipitation over the last few days from northern Wisconsin into upper Michigan with precipitation totals of 3 to 5″ or more in much of western and central upper Michigan.
Snow totals in upper Michigan have been very impressive as well from this early May snowstorm.
10 NNW Negaunee, MI: 32.0″
4 NE Negaunee, MI: 27.9″ (official total at the Marquette NWS)
2 SE Herman, MI: 27.0″
Three Lakes, MI: 19.5″
1 NW Eben Junction, MI: 16.1″
Northern Wisconsin saw quite a bit of cloud cover again today since that area was closer to the upper low/trough, while sunshine was much more abundant in northern Minnesota further away from the upper low/trough today.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Tuesday, May 2, 2023 (loop time ends 4:41 PM CT)
A larger view of the U.S. shows very clearly the two upper lows, the ridge and the N/NW flow aloft covering the upper Midwest this afternoon via water vapor imagery.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Tuesday, May 2, 2023 (loop time ends 4:46 PM CT)
Big model differences showing up when it comes to temperatures for next week.
Euro ensemble model is forecasting much cooler temperatures in the Northland compared to the GEFS model for next week.
Colors on the two images below
Blue and green: Below average temperatures
Orange and red: Above average temperatures
Euro ensemble model forecast
GEFS model forecast
Also seeing some differences in the computer models when it comes to the potential for getting some rain late this week/weekend, with the ensembles showing at least some rain affecting the Northland during the aforementioned time frame, while the NWS Blend of Models keeps much of the Northland dry or only getting some very light rain thru Sunday evening.
Tim
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