6:22 PM Monday, May 8, 2023
One word can describe the current pattern and that word would be chaotic!
The pattern is all messed up especially across Canada with a deep trough covering the eastern portion of Canada and broad troughing across the west, while a sliver of an upper-level ridge was found in between the two troughs.
It was nice to see the widespread thick fog finally burn off in the Twin Ports and in other locations near Lake Superior today which allowed for some partial sunshine at times this afternoon.
The potential that will see some more low clouds and patchy fog at times continues near Lake Superior tonight through Saturday due to persistent easterly winds and lingering moisture, but hopefully the fog won’t be nearly as widespread or persistent as we saw this past weekend.
Rain chances also continue across the Northland the next few days, but there’s no real organization to any of this rain meaning that the computer models are struggling as they try to figure out where this rain develops, tracks and how long it lasts for. But there does seem to be somewhat better model agreement showing an area of rain impacting the Northland Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but outside of that time frame the computer models are all over the place with the timing and placement of any rain in our area.
A warming trend will continue the next few days with highs in the 60s to lower 70s in the Northland Tuesday and mainly in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday, but it will remain cooler closer to Lake Superior (highs in the 40s and 50s) through Saturday due to an easterly wind, although that east wind doesn’t look very strong so the lake cooling shouldn’t spread very far inland at least through Thursday. A stronger NE wind is possible Friday-Saturday.
Note — Spring 2023 is running pretty similar to Spring 2022 in Duluth
Stats below are from March 1 – May 7
Average temperature
2023: 30.9 degrees, -3.8 degrees below average
2022: 30.5 degrees, -4.2 degrees below average
Total Precipitation
2023: 5.83″, +1.16″ above average
2022: 5.55″, +0.88″ above average
Number of 60 degree days: 3 this spring and also last spring thru May 7th.
Water vapor loop from Monday, May 8, 2023 (loop time ends 5 PM CT)
A few showers are possible tonight and Tuesday with perhaps a more solid area of rain impacting southern portions of the Northland (east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin) including Duluth sometime Tuesday night-Wednesday morning.
NAM 3km model radar forecast through 7 AM Wednesday.
Here’s a look at rainfall amounts over the last few days.
Note — Duluth Airport has picked up 0.50″ of rain over the last few days.
It was northern Minnesota’s turn to get some heavy rain early this morning with several reports of over an inch of rain. The North Shore also saw some pockets of heavy rain early this morning as a few thunderstorms tracked NE along the North Shore early today.
24-Hour Rainfall Reports ending 9 AM Monday, May 8, 2023
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
3 E Ranier, MN: 1.90″
2 E Celina, MN: 1.55″
1 S International Falls, MN: 1.54″
4 SSW Orr, MN: 1.49″
1 NW International Falls, MN: 1.42″
12 NNW Taconite, MN: 1.40″
Coleraine, MN: 1.23″
12 N Grand Rapids, MN: 1.15″
8 NNW Bovey, MN: 1.15″
1 SW Littlefork, MN: 1.01″
8 W Cloquet, MN: 0.64″
10.8 NE Two Harbors, MN: 0.47″
Deer River, MN: 0.47″
Cass Lake, MN: 0.23″
Cook, MN: 0.21″
Eveleth-Virginia Airport: 0.17″
Grand Marais, MN: 0.16″
Hayward, WI: 0.16″
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.13″
Two Harbors, MN: 0.11″
Local Storm Reports from May 7-8, 2023
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
2:25 AM 5/8: HAIL 0.50″ — 1 N Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)
7:45 PM 5/7: HAIL 0.25″ — 3 ENE Marengo, WI (Ashland County)
7:09 PM 5/7: HAIL 0.25″ — 7 NE Little Round Lake, WI (Sawyer County)
6:58 PM 5/7: HAIL 0.25″ — 3 NNW Namekagon, WI (Bayfield County)
6:57 PM 5/7: HAIL 0.25″ — 4 NW Namekagon, WI (Bayfield County)
6:18 PM 5/7: HAIL 0.50″ — 3 WNW Little Round Lake, WI (Sawyer County)
5:52 PM 5/7: HAIL 0.50″ — 2 W Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)
Another slow-moving low-pressure system is forecast to lift northeast out of the southern Rockies mid to late week before weakening as it lifts into the Midwest this weekend.
At the moment the chances for widespread rainfall are highest mostly west/south of the Northland Friday through early Sunday based on the track of this system per model guidance, with lesser chances for rain in northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin and also near Lake Superior including Duluth.
Tim
Leave a Reply