5:37 PM Sunday, May 7, 2023
Low clouds and fog along with some mist will continue near Lake Superior including the Twin Ports tonight and Monday. The fog will be dense at times with visibility of a quarter mile or less. Fog is likely to continue Monday night into Tuesday morning, but some improvement is possible by Tuesday afternoon. Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for the North Shore including Duluth until 10 AM Monday, but this advisory could be extended into Monday night and possibly even into Tuesday morning.
Scattered showers will also continue in the Northland tonight and Monday, and with some instability present there may even be a few isolated thunderstorms especially in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Localized pockets of heavy rain are possible over the next 24 hours.
A gradual warming trend on top of the hill in Duluth this week with temperatures climbing well into the 60s Wednesday and Thursday, and there’s even a chance the Airport could hit 70 degrees on one of those two days. Temperatures closer to Lake Superior could remain much cooler depending on the strength of any lake wind mid-week.
Note — The average date for the first 70 degree temperature in Duluth is April 23rd (1991-2020 climate period) Last year’s first 70 didn’t occur until May 10th, and in 2020 the first 70 didn’t occur until May 20th.
Here’s the HRRR model visibility forecast through 7 PM Monday.
Purple areas represent visibilities of <1 mile.
Clouds have decreased allowing for some sunshine to develop this afternoon across far southern portions of the Northland, but north of their it continues to be a gloomy and damp spring day.
Where skies have cleared temperatures have responded with temps in the mid 60s to low 70s this afternoon from Hinckley to the Solon Springs and Hayward areas.
We are seeing increasing amounts of instability this afternoon over far southern portions of the Northland with CAPE of around 500-1500 J/kg, this is also where a weak boundary is located, so this area could see a few showers and thunderstorms develop through tonight, but no severe weather is expected.
Chances for severe thunderstorms through tonight closer to the southernmost warm front over Iowa.
NEXT WEEK’S PATTERN
Will be seeing another strong ridge develop over western Canada next weekend, but at the same time a trough will cover northeastern Canada.
Computer models are having some difficulty right now as they try to figure out how far east that ridge sets up and how long it lasts before the trough over northeast Canada possibly retrogrades which helps to break down that ridge to the west.
Trough/lower heights generally lead to cooler temperatures, while a ridge with higher heights often leads to warmer temperatures.
Here’s a forecast of the 500mb pattern for next week (14th-18th via EPS model)
Note how the blue and green colors move west helping to break down that ridge in western Canada next week.
EPS model breaks down the ridge quicker compared to the GEFS model which leads to cooler than average temperatures in the Northland for much of next week.
GEFS model holds onto the ridge a little longer which results in temperatures being near average in the Northland next week with a warm start and perhaps a cooler finish next week.
Tim
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