6:33 PM Thursday, August 3, 2023
Drought Update as of August 1, 2023
Minnesota
2% of the state is in Extreme Drought, up from 1% last week.
33% of the state is in Severe Drought, up from 29% last week.
79% of the state is in Moderate Drought, down from 80% last week.
100% of the state is Abnormally Dry, unchanged from last week.
Wisconsin
12% of the state is in Extreme Drought, unchanged from last week.
41% of the state is in Severe Drought, down from 46% last week.
80% of the state is in Moderate Drought, down from 82% last week.
97% of the state is Abnormally Dry, down from 100% last week.
Here’s a look at the 4-week Drought Monitor Class Change across the Northland for the period August 1, 2023, compared to July 4, 2023.
The yellow and orange areas represent a 1 to 2 class degradation.
4% of the Midwest is in Extreme Drought, unchanged from last week.
22% of the Midwest is in Severe Drought, up from 20% last week.
52% of the Midwest is in Moderate Drought, down from 55% last week.
76% of the Midwest is Abnormally Dry, down from 82% last week.
Computer models continue to be in very poor agreement when it comes to this weekend’s system, where it will track, the timing of the rain, and where the main band of rain sets up.
For example, the NAM model showed a widespread significant rain event for the entire Northland late Saturday into Sunday per this morning’s model run, but fast forward to the latest model run from this afternoon and it shows the complete opposite, with lighter rains for north central into northeast Minnesota while all of northwest Wisconsin stays dry this weekend.
Note – The images below show forecasted rainfall totals through 7 PM Sunday, August 6, 2023.
The GFS model was pretty dry this weekend per this morning’s model run, but now the newest model run this afternoon has trended wetter.
The Euro model is a soaker for much of the Northland Saturday evening into Sunday, but even the Euro model has been changing quite a bit from one model run to the next over the last few days.
To wrap things up — Some rain is possible over the Northland this weekend, mainly from Saturday evening/overnight into Sunday, but rainfall totals continue to be very uncertain as of Thursday afternoon.
And last but not least, here’s the NWS Blend of Models rainfall forecast through Sunday evening.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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