4:51 PM Thursday, August 10, 2023
A small part of far northwest Wisconsin is now in Exceptional Drought while much of the rest of northwest Wisconsin and parts of northeast and east central Minnesota remain in Severe to Extreme Drought in this week’s drought monitor.
Rainfall anomalies across much of the Northland range from around -3 to -6 inches below normal since June 1st.
Here’s a look at total rainfall and the departure and percent of normal rainfall since June 1, 2023.
Brainerd, MN
Total: 3.98″
Normal: 9.32″
Departure: -5.34″ below normal
Percent of normal rainfall: 43% of normal
Superior, WI
Total: 4.25″
Normal: 9.56″
Departure: -5.31″ below normal
Percent of normal rainfall: 45% of normal
Hibbing, MN
Total: 4.64″
Normal: 9.10″
Departure: -4.46″ below normal
Percent of normal rainfall: 51% of normal
Cass Lake, MN
Total: 5.03″
Normal: 8.66″
Departure: -3.63″ below normal
Percent of normal rainfall: 59% of normal
Two Harbors, MN
Total: 5.11″
Normal: 9.16″
Departure: -4.05″ below normal
Percent of normal rainfall: 56% of normal
Duluth Airport
Total: 5.49″
Normal: 9.36″
Departure: -3.87″ below normal
Percent of normal rainfall: 59% of normal
International Falls, MN
Total: 5.74″
Normal: 8.54″
Departure: -2.80″ below normal
Percent of normal rainfall: 67% of normal
***RAINFALL FORECAST***
Much of the Northland has another chance to get some rain late tonight and Friday, with a widespread quarter to half inch of rain possible, with locally higher amounts of around an inch. Rain chances look highest later this evening through early Friday morning, with more scattered type rains possible Friday afternoon-early evening.
Nam 3km model radar forecast through 11 PM Friday.
Hrrrv4 model radar forecast through 11 PM Friday.
Here’s the latest drought monitor as of August 8, 2023.
Minnesota
2% of the state is in Extreme Drought, unchanged from last week.
33% of the state is in Severe Drought, unchanged from last week.
79% of the state is in Moderate Drought, unchanged from last week.
100% of the state is Abnormally Dry, unchanged from last week.
Wisconsin
0.32% of the state is in Exceptional Drought, up from 0% last week.
17% of the state is in Extreme Drought, up from 12% last week.
47% of the state is in Severe Drought, up from 41% last week.
82% of the state is in Moderate Drought, up from 80% last week.
97% of the state is Abnormally Dry, unchanged from last week.
4 week or one month drought monitor class change for the period August 8, 2023, compared to July 11, 2023.
Yellow and brown areas represent a 1 to 2 class degradation, while the green areas represent a 1 class improvement.
Percent of normal precipitation over the last two weeks.
Orange and reds: Below to well below normal precipitation.
Green, blue and purples: Above to well above normal precipitation.
Two systems will be crossing the Northland through this weekend.
The first system (outlined in red on the map below) moves through tonight into Friday, and this one should bring some rain and embedded thunderstorms to the area tonight into early Friday morning, with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening.
Here’s a look at the system which will move across the Northland through Friday.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Thursday, August 10, 2023 (loop time ends 4:10 PM CT)
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Friday afternoon/evening, with the best chances found in the yellow area on the map below which represents a Slight Risk or a Level 2/5 for severe thunderstorms.
The primary severe weather threats on Friday include large hail to quarter size (1″ diameter) and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph.
A second system (outlined in red on the map below) could affect the Northland Sunday-Monday with more rain possible during that time, with the chances for rain at their highest Sunday afternoon/evening through early Monday morning the way it looks now.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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