5:52 PM Saturday, August 12, 2023
There’s been a significant southward shift to Sunday’s system which isn’t good news if you want rain, and you live in the Twin Ports or anywhere near Lake Superior.
It doesn’t look like will be getting any rain now Sunday or Monday near Lake Superior including in the Twin Ports area as the main area of rain sets up farther south across central/southern Minnesota into western/central Wisconsin.
Outside of a few isolated rain showers this evening, the next few days look mostly dry in much of the Northland except in far western/southern parts of the area where some showers are still possible Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, but again the heaviest rains have shifted much farther south and out of the Northland now for late Sunday/Sunday night.
Wave (outlined in black on the map) over the Dakotas Sunday morning will move south-southeast through Monday, but this system has trended toward a farther west/south track taking it farther away from northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Nam 3km model radar forecast valid 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM Monday.
Note — On average you need around an inch of rain per week during the summer to prevent drought from developing, and as you can see on the charts below, an inch of rain per week has been very difficult to achieve this summer in Duluth.
Here’s a look at daily precipitation totals in Duluth this summer or since June 1st, 2023.
Some parts of the Northland did see quite a bit of rain on Friday, while others saw much less rain with amounts around a quarter inch or less.
Rainfall Anomalies for August 2023 (thru 4 PM on the 12th)
Ashland, WI: -1.25″ below normal
Duluth, MN: -1.07″ below normal
Hibbing, MN: -0.44″ below normal
International Falls, MN: +0.16″ above normal
Brainerd, MN: +0.57″ above normal
49% of days so far this summer have been cooler than average in Duluth (blues)
42% of days this summer have been warmer than average (reds)
9% of days this summer have been right at average (black)
Temperature anomalies for the summer of 2023 (thru August 11)
Brainerd, MN: +1.5 degrees above normal
Hibbing, MN: +0.8 degrees above normal
Cass Lake, MN: +0.8 degrees above normal
Duluth, MN: +0.4 degrees above normal
Superior, WI: -0.4 degrees below normal
Orange and red colors on the map below represent above average temperatures while the blue colors represent below average temperatures.
Looking ahead to the middle of next week shows a rather strong wave (outlined in white on the map below) moving quickly ESE out of Manitoba. The timing of this wave, along with the amount of moisture and instability that is available ahead of this system will determine whether or not we see some showers and thunderstorms and possibly even some strong to severe storms in parts of the Northland the middle of next week, or if this system passes through generally on the dry side if the moisture and instability isn’t there and the timing is unfavorable for storm development in our area.
Although we have seen a few severe weather events in the Northland recently, overall, the summer of 2023 continues to be pretty quiet in terms of severe weather with the NWS in Duluth issuing a total of 76 severe + tornado warnings in the Northland so far this year (thru Aug. 12)
By this time last year, the NWS Duluth office issued a total of 140 warnings in our area.
Note — Most through August 12 was in 2008 with 231 warnings in the Northland, and the fewest through August 12 was in 1993 with a total of 12 warnings.
***HEADS UP***
Looking ahead to next weekend finds the pattern changing quite a bit as we could see a pretty strong ridge/heat dome setting up over the Midwest while a potentially deep trough sets up over the far western US.
This type of pattern could lead to some very warm to hot weather in much Minnesota and Wisconsin with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s on a few days next weekend and into the early part of the following week (or roughly from August 19-23)
Whether or not this type of warmth occurs near Lake Superior and in the Twin Ports will depend on how the wind direction sets up on a daily basis, and whether or not we see a few storms riding north of where the upper ridge sets up next weekend. East wind off Lake Superior and the potential for a few storms would lead to temperatures being cooler at least near Lake Superior next weekend.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
Leave a Reply