5:16 PM Sunday, August 13, 2023
Seeing a pretty strong system move east/southeast through the Dakotas today with scattered to widespread rains affecting much of North Dakota, northern/eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota this afternoon, but the trajectory of this system will take it south of Northland with only the far southern parts of our area seeing any rain tonight through Monday morning, while locations farther north including the Twin Ports, Iron Range, Arrowhead and locations near Lake Superior staying mostly dry tonight.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Sunday, August 13, 2023 (loop time ends 4:16 PM CT)
Radar loop from Sunday, August 13, 2023 (loop time ends 4:20 PM CT)
HrrrV4 radar forecast through 9 AM Monday.
Rainfall forecast from via European computer model — Looks like the northern extent of where we could see up to around 0.10 inches of rain tonight into Monday morning sets up along and south of a line from around Backus to McGregor to Moose Lake in Minnesota, to around the Gordon and Minong area, then east toward the Cable, Clam Lake, Gildden and Butternut areas in northwest Wisconsin. Anywhere north of that aforementioned line should stay mainly dry tonight and Monday morning.
Note — Much higher rain totals of an inch or more are likely tonight and Monday across central and southern Minnesota into western and central Wisconsin.
***SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY***
The ingredients needed for severe thunderstorms appear to be coming together for Wednesday afternoon/evening in much of the Northland as a strong upper-level system and cold front move quickly southeast out of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Timing of this system and just how much moisture and instability there will be Wednesday afternoon is still somewhat uncertain as of Sunday afternoon, but at the moment the computer models are showing dew points in the low to mid 60s in our area Wednesday afternoon with temperatures in the 80s which will lead to CAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg which is enough fuel for stronger storms.
Looks like will see isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop around mid-afternoon Wednesday in north central Minnesota, then these storms could drop southeast by late Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening impacting northeast and eastern Minnesota into parts of northwest Wisconsin.
Winds aloft look pretty strong for this midweek system, and the amount of wind shear both speed and directional shear look favorable for some severe weather.
Note — High winds and hail look to be the primary severe weather threats at this time with not much of a tornado threat the way it looks now.
500mb forecast for Wednesday, August 16, 2023 — Midweek system which will affect the Northland (outlined in red on the map below)
Here’s the Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook for Wednesday, August 16, 2023.
Yellow area: 15 to 29% chance of severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
This risk area could shift around over the next few days, and if anything, we could see the risk area extend a little farther east from where it is today (Sunday)
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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